john- ALIF your thinking is correct IMO. ALIF I think has some issues people are overlooking possibly, it is in some ways similar to ZYXI and their continual growth of ARs faster than revs that I mentioned was not a sound biz practice longer term (especially in light of last Q having revs drop and yet again have ARs grow for ZYXI).
ZYXI IMO might get close to BK if they aren't careful unless they really get cracking on collecting their ARs. Last Q's drop in revs while still growing ARs was a danger sign in my book.
Similar to ZYXI, ALIF has most of its tangible book value held in accts receivs (I'm old school, I look at meat and potato tangible book value but obviously intangible value can be important excpet I've seen it get written down a lot more often than tangible book so I tend to not look at it much).
To those that hemm and haw about ARs, I would say look at ZYXI closely and watch it over time if they don't get their AR collections going.
You'll see what ARs growth more than revs growth can do to a company when it goes on for awhile (they need to keep borrowing or else get squeezed hard).
ALIF though has only recently had the big AR growth so it is only a potential warning sign if it continues to grow faster than revs and their core biz that is responsible for the growth kind of took off after they did the $10 mill common stock offering in 2007 (took them some time developing away from the soft bot idea and more toward handheld 2G and 3G stuff and gaming).
I'd be looking at next Q very closely to watch that area with ALIF. I don't care who the ARs are due from. It is a failed biz model if it persists over time IMO.
Also, ALIF does have a lot of buzz lately even though it may not have the specific board following yet. So Does ZAGG these days.
ALIF and ZAGG could be last year's ZYXI, DPDW, and AYSI. I wouldn't touch ZYXI even now for the above reason mentioned. DPDW and AYSI I am in, although AYSI is looking at a short term mountain to climb with biz getting slammed in the mining sector. Deep Down took care of the debt I dwelled on previously and have a core biz now to look at (although it was privately held so it is hard for me at least to get a good grip around it).
Look at ALIF and look at its revs growth and ARs. Last Q revs grew by about the same amount as the couple Qs before that (about $1.2 mill to $1.3 mill) so sequential revs growth is not accelerating, at least not over the last few Qs. Plus ARs in the last 12 months have grown more than revs. So some of that $10 mill share offering is getting sucked into ARs.
BUT unlike ZYXI, ALIF has breathing room with almost $3 mil left of that $10 mill they got in 2007.
I think though your idea of flavor of the year is a good point. I've taken a good ride down on AYSI:) Could definitely go lower short term. But I'm looking out further on both Deep and Alloy. Zynex the further I look out the more I cringe at least if the story the balance sheet is showing me continues.
That's enough bashing from me for the day:)
I'm sure a stalker will be 'round shortly.
Good luck all!
All only one person's opinion that has been wrong in the past and will be wrong in the future.
back to lurk :)
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