Replies to post #173885 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[oclv99]

CTS, Thanks for your generous response! Exactly the type of detail and ensuing discussion I was hoping for.

[TinyPineTree]

C to S....Excellent summary.

Keep it coming sellers. Keep it coming baby!

[tkc]

CtS, really nice work. We're really close. I used higher margins (90.5% for Q4, 92% for Q1) because I assumed the Rev increase from Dell did not require an increase in COGS. Thanks for sharing.

[xxxxcslewis]

CTS,

Thank you. We are in the same ballpark.

The large increase in Q3 deferred revenue has me intigued. It could be an indicator of greater upgrade traction than you are assuming.

[hnstabe]

ChancetoSee, I just reviewed your numbers. Several things stand out to me. 1)You project upgrades at 6k and 9k for 4Q and 1Q. If I remember corrrectly, SKS said that upgrades for October almost equalled all of 3Q. That would be about 10,000 for October alone. And he strongly hinted that the pipeline was pretty full of new business. Assumming that to be the case, 4Q should add up to about 40,000 upgrades: 40k x $60 each is $2.4 million. 2) Your 12k and 16k of FDE sales is only 0.05% of the Dell Es sold in both 4Q and 1Q. Do you think Seagate will drop the FDE product line soon? I don't and I look for FDE to spurt to 5% of so by 1Q, and 3)Perhaps the private placement dated 12/26 was needed regardless of the CFBE in 4Q because Wave still owes $6 million in Accounts Payable and one or more of those creditors just might take some damaging action if significant payment(s) are not forthcoming soon. Wave needs all the cash they can get.

Anyway, we are a little ways apart in our analyses. I also do not think it matters too much what our numbers are. It is just a peace of mind thing.

When will we get the real story? Anybody know?

hnstabe