Replies to post #19256 on Value Microcaps Free-For-All

[Knowledge is King]

jaybird, if most of your pumps are any indication...


your "7 figure portfolio" used to be 8 figures. Just in the past year you've treated various boards to such flameouts as DYII, HAUP, HOGS, ATEA, ANTP, and CNOA. Perhaps your MBA stands for Made to Burn Assets?

[lentinman]

The Jaybird Fallacy:

One would hope this would end the issue of whether or not his opinion is worth anything once and for all. There is no question he's a pumper. Since he never (or almost never) states when he sells, all we can do is measure his advice with respect to today's price. Shown below is every initial pump of his for a given stock on FFA or MB since January 1st, 2008. It wouldn't be fair to simply show the losses without also showing what the Russell 2000 did for the same period. So, I showed his loss and the R2K's loss on each pump. Finally, I show the differential between JB and R2K for each trading day.

  Date Stock  JB   R2K  R2K Advantage 
  1-16 SOLF  -75% -35%      +35% 
  1-16 CSIQ  -73% -35%      +38% 
  1-17 WSCI  -57% -33%      +24% 
  3-28 ANTP  -68% -34%      +24% 
  4- 1 EFUT  -71% -36%      +35% 
  4-11 VCGH  -60% -34%      +26% 
  4-17 CNOA  -68% -36%      +32% 
  4-21 HOGS  -18% -37%      -19% 
  4-22 MXC   +19% -36%      -55% 
  4-23 KONG  -24% -36%      -12% 
  7- 9 TIV   -63% -32%      +31% 
  7-21 COGO  -38% -35%      + 3% 
  7-28 CAAS  -55% -35%      +20% 
  7-30 NED   -50% -37%      +13% 
  7-31 SMTX  -71% -37%      +34% 
  8- 6 CSUN  -60% -37%      +23% 
  8-15 GPIC  + 6% -40%      -46% 
  8-23 FRD   -51% -38%      +13% 
  8-28 MBHI  -64% -39%      +25% 
  8-29 RODM  -56% -39%      +17% 
  9-12 SUTR  -60% -37%      +23% 
 10- 2 AGM   -44% -29%      +15% 
 10- 8 PMI   -39% -17%      +22% 
 10-10 MHJ   -23% -13%      +10% 
 10-15 BBX   -57% -10%      +47% 
 10-20 CDS   -57% -17%      +40% 
 10-21 MED   -29% -15%      +14%

His average return is 16% WORSE than the Russell 2000 for the same period. The average period is roughly 5 months, so his annualized rate of return is actually 43% worse than the R2K.

He only has two arguments.

1) "I suck at stock picking."
2) "I never held anything as long (or to the target price) as I said. Thus, I'm a pumper."

Len