Dragon, nice post. This is not a pinksheet company. It's all about assets. Always has been. Do we have enough money left over after debt is paid to fund all groups of stocks and at what percentage rate (meaning fully funded 100% or some lower level). Take WAMPQ if we come out of BK and are $500/s, then we got funded at 50%. As the company grows and profits and you continue to hold, your stock will climb accordingly. For those who hold commons (last to get funded), the company cannot just say to the judge "Gee it would be nice just to wipe the commons clean". This has been bantied about using the K-Mart example. The only reason K-Mart wiped out the commons was because they had no assets left to fund the stock. It became worthless and was discontinued. Remember stock holders are part owners of the company. If the company survives, we survive.
Now let's look at what we have in assets:
1. $4.4B in cash
2. $1.9B paid for banking business.
3. $20B in NOL (Net operating loss) worth somewhere between $7B-$10B. We won't be paying taxes for years or at least until we have earned more than $20B.It carries over from year to year for 5 years.
4. $32B reported in assets on the BK filing. Some of which are toxic sub-prime mortgages. Others are real estate, good loans, etc. So, take off $8B for the toxic stuff.
So, conservitively speaking we have at least $32B less debt of $8B, leaving $25B to come out of BK and reorganize. If $8B fully funds the preferred's then there is $17B left to fund the commons. That would be $8-$10/s for commons. Yes, this is a BK stock, but WAMU had to declare CH 11 BK simply to protect themselves after the FDIC did it's evil deed. I think JPM desperately wants to buyout WMI, I think the negotiating is going on right now. WMI is in a very strong posistion, it could be that JPM just can't afford to buy them out. Either way we win.