What I said was "One of the nice things about AMD is its relative new found immunity to the market cycle". Notice the word relative. Cycles are like cogs in a clock, some run in bigger circles than others, but as AMD becomes more dominant the effects of the cycles will become less pronounced.
Things are constantly in a state of flux. If you think I'm wedded to AMD forget it, I just look for opportunities and try to act accordingly. I had no problems selling AMD during the 2k washout when it became obvious that a very big, industry wide, correction was at hand, but I never lost sight of what was going on at AMD. All the way down I kept selling and buying back every time it looked like we might be reaching bottom. Trouble was that bottom was a lot farther down than I fathomed. Not to worry though everything worked out and I'm up about 3 dollars for every one I've invested in AMD. Not too bad for 5 years of very hard work.
The thing that again attracted me to AMD 5 years ago was the possibility that AMD could finally become a significant player in the development of the most significant technology of our time. I knew monopolies never last, for a thousand reasons, some of which we're seeing played out today. This is especially true of industries that are as fundamental as computer processors are to the way the world works today. Duopolies, on the other hand are a more stable form, especially if marginal players are included.
When I looked at INTC I saw the things we're seeing today in spaces. Namely, a company advanced in age and starting to suffer from poor management, lack of innovation, and an ill defined game plan. On the other hand when I looked at AMD I saw a company used to living on the edge, that constantly confounded its critics by its mere existence. With the Athlon, AMD finally had a chance to overcome what were admittedly long shot odds. The last 5 years have seen steady progress, even with some production setbacks. The addition of Hector to the management team was the final piece needed to propel AMD out of the "me too" existence that had marked so much of AMDs prior existence.
Today AMD has the better management, better products, better production processes and better corporate structure when compared to INTC.
For me we're in the 5th year of what I had always perceived as a 5 year turn around. Now is when things get golden.
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