We don't know that demand will spike this winter; oil is down to $64 a barrel, and we are getting started with the "drill, baby, drill" campaign. It might take several years, but I don't see how those opposed to drilling can say that an additional 4 million barrels of refined oil (out of the 20 million per day we currently use) will not put a DENT in prices...if you increase supply by 25% that will surely put a dent in prices...might also keep those OPEC nations in line since they'll realize we eventually won't need them anymore and they can go back to living in the desert and riding camels. I have a friend from Saudi Arabia who showed pictures of what it was like 40 years ago and then today. 40 years ago they were living in mud huts out in the desert. Today they have skyscrapers...it's all because of oil, mostly bought by the U.S.
Anyway, back to topic. Don't assume you'll know where demand will be. Remember back in the 1970's when oil spiked for almost a decade and then went to $10 a barrel in the early 80's? It's nearly impossible to predict, though we're certainly not going to stop using coal and oil anytime soon...something to think about. Fuel usually does go up a bit in the winter, but in this market the fundamentals don't make any sense...