Replies to post #9098 on Pilgrim Petroleum Corp. (PGPM)

[PAI]

How do you say it is true when you have no idea what ACLY is actually worth? I'm sorry but that makes no sense because no one here knows the true value of ACLY. What happens to your scenario if they come out stating that ACLY has lots of value due to their leases, etc and we figure out that ACLY is worth $50 a share? (random number so don't think that is what I think it is worth) Do you still think it would drop?

Here is a post from masc2279 from earlier today that makes complete sense:

"No one here or anywhere can tell you what its worth because there has been no disclosure on what ACLY is holding including leases, assets, and cash on hand. they as well have not disclosed the Available shares, nor the true value of PGPM outstanding shares which would give us a way to calculate how much they plan to dilute ACLY to pay us Once they submit the 10-K and 8-K forms we should be able to see what they have and how healthy the company is. Then we should start seeing where ACLY will be for a better picture where we will be once moved to ACLY"

[downsideup]

You can ask the same questions in reverse and not be able to answer them any better... whether you want to talk it up, or talk it down, you really can't... because you don't have any of the sort of numbers you need in the multipliers to do anything like a rational valuation of the knowns... and the unknowns are still unknown.

So, until you HAVE information you don't now... you are pretty much left with formulating an answer that, one way or the other, isn't more than a guess.

Variation in expectations, then, might be only a function of how well informed the guesses are... or only a function of how much the various knowns are likely to be weighted against the unknowns in different ways by guessers with varying levels of skill ?

I think the only honest answer is still that no one has much of a clue, and no one WILL have a clue about the meaning or value in today's news, until more information is forthcoming.

PGPM really DID start to fill in the blanks in the information vacuum today, but, they started from the BACK END of the list... with news of a single move which might prove a nice reward for longer term holders... or not... depending on how well and how "soon" the rest of the blanks get filled in.