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Re: CalTex post# 9098

Thursday, 10/23/2008 6:41:18 PM

Thursday, October 23, 2008 6:41:18 PM

Post# of 64476
You can ask the same questions in reverse and not be able to answer them any better... whether you want to talk it up, or talk it down, you really can't... because you don't have any of the sort of numbers you need in the multipliers to do anything like a rational valuation of the knowns... and the unknowns are still unknown.

So, until you HAVE information you don't now... you are pretty much left with formulating an answer that, one way or the other, isn't more than a guess.

Variation in expectations, then, might be only a function of how well informed the guesses are... or only a function of how much the various knowns are likely to be weighted against the unknowns in different ways by guessers with varying levels of skill ?

I think the only honest answer is still that no one has much of a clue, and no one WILL have a clue about the meaning or value in today's news, until more information is forthcoming.

PGPM really DID start to fill in the blanks in the information vacuum today, but, they started from the BACK END of the list... with news of a single move which might prove a nice reward for longer term holders... or not... depending on how well and how "soon" the rest of the blanks get filled in.