From a Slate article (Oct'03): "The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a good leading indicator for economic growth and production. After all, it doesn't deal with container ships carrying finished goods. It deals with the precursors to production: bulk carriers carrying building materials, cement, grain, coal, and iron. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content", says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist. People don't book freighters unless thay have cargo to move".
With that said, check out these BDI charts. I especially honed into these:
BDI/CRB BDI/Copper BDI/ 10-year
In each of these charts, the BDI is at the lowest level in years and, to boot, is behaving at a chart extreme. And, if this behavior is a precursor to economic activity, it certainly looks like it is hitting and in some cases 'overshot' bottom.
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