Replies to post #67504 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Also-ran players in the US HIV market:

With Atripla and Truvada, GILD has established an 85% patient share in the first-line setting and a 67% patient share overall (#msg-32944110). Sustiva, Reyataz, and Kaletra (from BMY, BMY, and ABT, respectively) are large-selling drugs that fill out most of the Truvada-based cocktails.

So, who has the remaining crumbs?

Several companies do, as depicted by this
slide from MRK’s recent R&D webcast:



Note that these are patient shares, not Rx shares. (Rx shares are much smaller because nearly all non-Atripla patients take several HIV drugs simultaneously.)

[DewDiligence]

The HIV market continues to grow slowly but steadily in the US
and EU thanks to increased testing, which has been facilitated
by recent legislation (#msg-31419107), and new treatment
guidelines that recommend an earlier start (#msg-33124429).

Here are some data* on HIV and HBV penetration and
market share as provided by GILD on its 4Q08 CC:


US HIV patients: All lines
174K on Atripla (31% share)
188K on Truvada (34% share)
†23K on Viread (4% share)
===
385K on tenofovir in some form (69% share)
175K on non-tenofovir regimens (31% share)
===
560K total patients, +9% year-over-year, +2% quarter-over-quarter


US HIV patients: First-line only
Atripla + Truvada: >80% share (down from 85% in prior qtr)


EU‡‡ HIV patients: All lines
270K total patients, +7% year-over-year, +2% quarter-over-quarter


EU‡‡ HIV patients: First-line only
Atripla** + Truvada: 70% share (up from 55% in prior qtr)


US HBV new Rx’s
‡Hepsera: 28% share
Viread: 20% share††


*As of the end of 3Q08.
**Not yet reimbursed in France.
†Estimate by Dew.
††Exceeds shares of Tyzeka and Lamivudine.
‡No longer being promoted.
‡‡Top-5 EU countries only (Germany, France, UK, Italy, Spain).