I am not very interested in your proposition: what kind of person has what kind of chance of success.
Because what they are actually doing is closer to what chance of success.
Do you remerber that guy (I forgot his name) who was head of gang, killed several people, put in jail, then published many books to educate young people, then executed a couple of years ago.
More, so many successful businessmen were not outstanding students at all when they were young.
So, don't judge people's future with their ancient history. Instead, scrutinize what they are doing at this moment. I know it is difficult for you to get all the details. But as copyright officer says 'If you cannot get permission, it is better not to use'. So, if you cannot get plenty of proof, you cannot give a conclusion of scam.