Biotech Buyouts:
As an owner of a few on the list I think no here is my reasoning.
UTHR-Couple Reasons. Dr. Rothblatt's daughter has PAH and I think it is something she'd not relinquish easily. The company's value could chance significantly in November and/or March or so next year depending on how their Oral Remodulin does. They are making money and don't have a pressing need (though personally I wish they would partner x-US as they don't seem to be getting through regulators well penetrating that well but perhaps with an inhaled and/or oral drug they can do a better job). need Going by memory there are change of control that give management big bonuses. And lastly, if you believe IR they have not been approached.
BMRN-Everyone has been saying it for a couple years. Yes on paper it makes sense especially now that BMRN has a Pompe program. I think there may be some anti-trust issues (but I am not a lawyer). With their BH4 Cardiovascular program unclear (and probably will be well into next year) it is hard to value the company. They have built a nice sized cash hord and are now making money so they don't need help at this point (OK maybe if one of the bigger cardiovascular indications is successful but that is a couple years away). More importantly I think JJ has done a fine job and they have developed a pipeline and the company has a nice long-term future and I think they can do ok alone.
I don't own Vertex but I don't think they get bought either. J&J has a collaboration with another PI company and on the Yahoo board everyone says they would be the likely suitor. Perhaps someone else but I would guess not anytime soon they raised a ton of cash (and went through a few tons!). I think the valuation for PI's has went down a lot (this coming from someone long a PI company).
I own MNTA too but don't have an opinion. I'ld like for them to wait until Q1 '09 for a couple reasons :).
That is my two cents and watch tomorrow morning all four get buyout offers, I could live with being wrong at a good price :).
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