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the big guy

08/24/08 1:45 AM

#17672 RE: Rawnoc #17671

that is a really interesting quote. I think what he is referring to is the fact that prices are affected by overall market conditions such that rational investing does not work. Buy-and-hold investing does not work.

Right now, because of the credit crises, etc... stocks are priced very low, and that is not rational based on their performance. So the rational investor, who maybe bought over the last few years when things were up, is getting screwed unfairly. In fact, what they did was quite rational. Market right now is similar to 2003-2004 (downward). However, earnings is generally good... with some exceptions. In technology, thee has been so sign of a real slowdown in earnings because of lack or corporate spending that I have seen.

hence pessimism is a good environment to do business in = buy low in times like right now.

optimism = the enemy = don't be a sheep and just buy when market euphoria strikes. Notice oil starting to crash.

technology = next big bubble, commodities and energy winding down.


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P K G

08/24/08 9:40 AM

#17676 RE: Rawnoc #17671

"You should not buy what is being sold to you. You should buy what comes from you analysis and looks the cheapest. Something you have dug out and found".
CNBC this week by Mr. Buffett.

You do a good job on this, Raw.

His buys must have three things:

Undervalued
Has a competitive advantage
Superior management.

Also, no excuse on this earth to average down in a company that is not highly profitable.
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Netman

08/25/08 6:40 PM

#17699 RE: Rawnoc #17671

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uBuy until uSell - uWink, uWait, uWin! - Netman