Hear Hear......
Don't blame you, don't blame me, blame Dr. Cox behind that tree.
Sorry I left out the incompetent BODs. Now that Croumagnon and Dew have established a fire sale price for all of us. $100M Crou, $150M Dew.... I guess we can all begin to wonder why anyone would go to all that trouble to compile the information and data found in the Readme section. Guess its time to throw up our hands and sell the company despite all the evidence we have for GTC's real value. That might work in Backgammon, but it certainly wont in Poker.
Everyone's tired and frustrated by the share performance..every one is convinced they could run the company better. I see a lot of criticisms here, but I do not see creative solutions. "Cutting expenses" is not a solution, but is merely a rehashing of GTC's principal problem which is funding.
A look at the cold hard facts:
Please forgive my estimates they are not meant to be self serving and if you have serious feel free to state them.
GTCB has four major partners at present... LEO, Merrimack, LFB and Ovation.
I put GTC's estimated out of pocket expense over the next four years at about $28M/year.. I choose 2012 as the sentinal year because if all goes well the DIC indication will hit the market that year.
For the sake of simplicity say GTC has enough money to get through the remainder of this year. To survive they must have funding for the next three years.
The money.. at present they can expect $4-5M/ per years from Euro HD atryn sales. With another $4-5M kicking in from US HD sales in 2010,, plus whatever milestone Ovation payments kick in from anticipated FDA approval of Atryn.
The DIC phase2 study is projected to be complete in 2H 2009 and at that time GTC should receive a portion of the LEO $73M
as milestone payment..$20M is my guess. Keep in mind GTC is in line for $250M (ovation) and $70M (LEO) over the next four years if the DIC indication works and they can stay alive.
Whats in it for their partners. Well ignoring the "chump change" Hd indication..
Atryn's share of the US and Euro DIC market figures to be about $2B/ year...(GTC would get 15% of that).
If MM-093 works out for Merrimack (RA indication) they are in line for $1B (DD says this has block buster potential) GTC+ about $80M-$90M/yr
FactorVII..about 1-2 $B worldwide market...GTC gets about 50% of this/
Any way ignoring the many many other ways GTC might benefit from its platform with the "partners" looking at potential $4-5B in yearly revenues I just can not see them letting GTC go down the drain.. for what one poster described as "chump change" I have disregarded other likely possibility such as Teva or Novaris hiring GTC to do FOBs.
IMHO The valuations in the survey are ridiculous. I urge patience. GTCB has done the hard part...
":>) JL
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