Replies to post #64391 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

2Q08 worldwide sales of Isentress, Merck's HIV integrase inhibitor approved in the treatment-experienced setting, were $77M. (Merck launched Isentress in the United States in October 2007.)

[DewDiligence]

Why is the HIV market so profitable for GILD and
a few other companies? Because AIDS is more than
ever a chronic disease. A person in the US, Canada,
or Western Europe who begins SoC drug treatment
at age 20 has a life expectancy of 43 years.

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAN2430954320080724

› Drugs Add 13 Years to Average Life of HIV Patient

Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:30pm EDT
By Maggie Fox

WASHINGTON, July 24 (Reuters) - Cocktails of HIV drugs help patients live an average of 13 years longer -- if they are lucky enough to get them, researchers reported on Thursday.

A person who started taking the drugs at age 20 could, on average, expect to live another 43 years, the researchers report in the Lancet medical journal.

They looked at several studies of patients living in the United States, Canada and several European countries who received drug combinations known as highly active antiretroviral therapy or HAART.

Robert Hogg of the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS in Vancouver, Canada and colleagues looked at 43,000 patients in 14 different studies.

"Between 1996-99 and 2003-05, there was a gain in life expectancy for those at age 20 years of about 13 years; similar gains in life expectancy in those aged 35 years were also seen," they wrote.

"A person starting combination therapy can expect to live about 43 years at 20 years of age, about two-thirds as long as the general population in these countries." Average life expectancy for a 20-year-old without HIV in those countries would be 80 [i.e. 60 years], they said.

Patients treated later on in their infections and those infected via injected drug use did not live as long as those treated early, the researchers found.

The AIDS virus infects an estimated 33 million people globally and has killed about 25 million since the pandemic started in the 1980s.

NEAR-NORMAL LIFE

There is no vaccine and no cure but the drugs can suppress the virus and allow patients to lead a near-normal life. Without treatment, the virus destroys the immune system, leaving patients susceptible to infections and cancer.

More than 20 drugs are now on the market and can be combined in various ways to control the virus, although it usually mutates eventually and patients must switch to different regimens to keep it under control.

Drug companies have come up with combination pills to make it easier to stay on therapy.

Nearly 3 million people in the developing world now get HIV drugs -- about 70 percent of those who need them, according to the United Nations.‹



Let’s talk biotech!
“The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”

[DewDiligence]

The HIV market continues to grow nicely in the US and
EU thanks to increased testing, which has been facilitated
by recent legislation (#msg-31419107).

Here are some data** on penetration and market share
as provided by GILD on its 3Q08 CC:


US patients (all lines)
154K on Atripla (28% share)
192K on Truvada (35% share)
23K on Viread (4% share)
===
369K on tenofovir in some form (67% share)
182K on non-tenofovir regimens (33% share)
===
551K total patients, +8% year-over-year


US patients (first-line only)
Atripla: 55% share
Truvada: 30% share
Viread: negligible share
===
Tenofovir in some form: 85% share


Patients in top-5 EU countries (all lines)
*9K on Atripla (3% share)
112K on Truvada (42% share)
59K on Viread (23% share)
===
180K on tenofovir in some form (68% share)
85K on non-tenofovir regimens (32% share)
===
265K total patients, +7% YoY


Top-5 EU countries (first-line only)
Tenofovir in some form: 55% share


*Not yet reimbursed in France.
**As of the end of 2Q08.


<font size=3><font color=red> “The efficient-market hypothesis may be
the foremost piece of B.S. ever promulgated
in any area of human knowledge!”