Replies to post #25873 on Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO)

[realist1]

RE "Is PPHM a $90 million +/- valuation company, a billion valuation or a multi billion valuation company? "

Your sentence implies that the share price goes no lower, which is highly unlikely. If investors abandon the shares after a possible reverse split, and/or if they can't get cash to find trials, or that cash comes from massive dilution, it could be a nearly WORTHLESS company. Why you and others choose to ignore that very realistic possibility based on the track record of this company and management team is beyond me, or is that why you guys keep me around? ;-)

If a reverse split happens BEFORE your potential positives (Duke paper, phase 2 results) I fully expect the value of Peregrine stock to decline more deeply than it has already.
You may choose to ignore that, and only be wired for the extreme long term results, but most investors don't want to see their portfolio suffer Chinese water torture losses (OK, paper losses).

RE "I have had the opportunity to sell PPHM shares at $3+ three times since I first invested here"

But you didn't, and now you're holding at 40 pennies.
That should tell us all we need to know about the value of your opinion regarding this investment/speculation. Also, if anything, it's proof that PPHM should be no more than a short to intermediate term investment, NOT a buy and hold for years.

Also, since each of those times you mentioned, PPHM has had a larger number of shares outstanding. Although I suspect that large share count is something that is about to be remedied in a very harsh way.

All my opinion of course.

[MobyInvestor]

"If PPHM is at risk of failure, maybe the $3 to $5 buyout would look sweet with the benefit of hindsight."

K.T., if hindsight counts for anything then all we have to look at is the high water mark in terms of stock price and market cap since King became CEO.

In Jan. 2004 the stock reached an intraday high of $3.14 for a market cap of $438.3 million. Since that time he's diluted shareholders by 62% with 86.5 million shares of dilutive financing.

If we also factor in inflation as measured by the dollar index the market cap back then would have to be adjusted to $539.7 million, or a share price of $3.87.

That share price, with the current shares outstanding, would mean a market cap of $875 million today.

Nothing short of a miracle is going to be required for Tustin to just get the market cap back to an inflation and dilution adjusted parity with what King once had when, as you say, the company was worth "less" because that was before Bavi.

I shudder to think how much more dilution we're going to have to endure if, again as you say, we have to wait until some time in 2009 before the "real" value of Bavi is baked into the share price.

Regards,

moby