Chevyguy, you wrote: "Jake, I am sure 99% of us would take a 3-5 buck buyout, I dont see that happening".
I wouldn't be so sure about the majority of shares held being willing to accept a $3 to $5 buyout. PPHM has been implementing a business plan that includes delivery of Phase 2 trial results of Bavi and Cotara that place an exclamation mark on the value of PPHM proprietary technology. PPHM also has Avid getting traction with contracts, the DTRA funding PPHM work that both expands the PPHM technology applicability while exploring effectiveness against potential pandemic or biowarfare maladies such as Lassa Fever. Also, the much anticipated Duke paper is supposed to lay out supportive research that situates PPHM technology into addressing the sort of pandemics that the Gates Foundation and government has been willing to fund as a priority.
The point is that there is a lot in formation with PPHM that will reveal itself for market valuation over the next several months and into 2009. If PPHM is at risk of failure, maybe the $3 to $5 buyout would look sweet with the benefit of hindsight. However, that sort of pricing only represents a market valuation of maybe $750 million to a billion or so. Delivery of successful business plan results over these next several months places a multiplier on the value of PPHM technology. The current 40 cent +/- share price doesn't reflect value of PPHM success with even the recent delivery of Avid contracts. Simple comparative market capitalization that aligns with that achieved by companies with successful delivery of product to market (like Imclone with Erbitux) supports a much higher PPHM market cap.
I have had the opportunity to sell PPHM shares at $3+ three times since I first invested here and chose to wait out delivery of what PPHM is now bringing forward. I plan on being here when the Georgia and India trial results are in, the significance of Duke research has been announced to the public, DTRA development is underway and Avid is announcing revenues that reflect both the Halozyme sales and new Crucell deal sales. That vantage point of knowledge will affirm for me whether my due diligence review of PPHM tech that has led me to wait out these results delivers patient treatment development and financial viability that affirms that my choice was worth it.
Recall that the market was valuing PPHM at $3 when they were on the cusp of expanding treatment for lung cancer in China working with Dr. Epstein and Epstein's company, Cancer Therapeutics Laboratories until the development where CTL and their Chinese partner apparantly took measures to exclude PPHM from the process, leading to the current litigation. A ruling in PPHM's favor from Judge Perk can reform PPHM prospects for China development almost overnight.
Is PPHM a $90 million +/- valuation company, a billion valuation or a multi billion valuation company? Resolution of the items such as noted above will let us know in timing that does not appear to be that far out. I will be looking at Monday's conference call information to reveal just how far away PPHM is from posting the sort of affirming results that tell investors which bracket PPHM would properly value into. It may take until post July 21 listing announcements or through the October share holder meeting, but none of these timings have PPHM that far out from revealing its near term prospects. A lot has happened in the eight years I have been invested in TCLN/PPHM, but a lot of the set up work I have observed appears to be about ready to deliver.
What will the current share price do if PPHM can show how it has financial needs covered for the next year+ without needing to do any diluitive financing and trial results continue to parade their way along to demonstrating PPHM technology is outperforming standard of care for multiple indications?
Best wishes and IMO.
KT
AI
