Replies to post #33817 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[HailMary]

that gives new product in mid 2005.

I think if they started a derivative server part at the beginning of this year with a core that didn't have x86-64 in it, it wouldn't show up as a product until the end of 2005 at the earliest. It takes few months just to get a team organized and moving in the right direction, probably another 9 months to do the work to get to tapeout, and then at least 12 months from tapeout to production. I think 2 years at a minimum from start to production assuming all they did is add x86-64. I think I'm even being generous on the timescales. OEMs often take 6 months to do their own qualification for server chips, so it may not be in a product until 2006. The warning signs were there earlier as you point out. So if they started this back in early 2003, then mid 2005 is reasonable.

Intel isn't exactly known for their fast design cycle times either. They often take longer than other companies to do new and derivative cores.

[rupert]

sgolds: Would AMD have a unit similar to skunkworks but with the dedicated purpose of finding out what is going on at Intel? I can't believe AMD relies on the Inquirer or DRBES to post news articles. At the same time I doubt that they have a mole(s)in Intel with the kind of access to "classified" information that would be necessary. If there is a specialised person or unit for intelligence on the competition to whom would they report?

[pgerassi]

Dear Sgolds:

Dothan does not have any x86-64 extensions in it currently. Nor were any planned. If they were, Dothan chipsets would have 40 bit addressing. They do not have even the 36 bit for PAE. They just have 32 bits for 4GB! With all out effort, they may add AMD64 to Dothan by end of 2005 and that assumes no problems! More likely mid 2006 with systems appearing end of 2006.

This means no 4 way Intel AMD64 until 2006. Fab 36 just got paid for! Scumbria must be rolling on the floor, laughing. Its taken Intel 2.5 years to see that "Netburst" is a dead end. He and I said that Intel would rue the day. Seems like they have seen the light. And a big hole just opened up on the middle of their important server market.

Watch for Intel to make a dual FSB 4 way Xeon DP chipset ala AMD's 760MPX. And make a Xeon MP 3.2G/4MB. Those will be no match for Opteron x50 (2.4G) much less the future x52 (2.6), x54 (2.8) and x56 (3.0).

Pete