Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[HailMary]

that gives new product in mid 2005.

I think if they started a derivative server part at the beginning of this year with a core that didn't have x86-64 in it, it wouldn't show up as a product until the end of 2005 at the earliest. It takes few months just to get a team organized and moving in the right direction, probably another 9 months to do the work to get to tapeout, and then at least 12 months from tapeout to production. I think 2 years at a minimum from start to production assuming all they did is add x86-64. I think I'm even being generous on the timescales. OEMs often take 6 months to do their own qualification for server chips, so it may not be in a product until 2006. The warning signs were there earlier as you point out. So if they started this back in early 2003, then mid 2005 is reasonable.

Intel isn't exactly known for their fast design cycle times either. They often take longer than other companies to do new and derivative cores.