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downsideup

06/06/08 2:04 PM

#18323 RE: mvnalmn2 #18321

I'm "too well versed" in every stock I own... and I get "too well versed" in each before ever buying a one of them... I only participate here as a part of my DD process. The chat will often fill in a few gaps you can't fill any other way... using public documents you don't know enough to look for. Have seen that here this week.

No. I don't work for TRNP... don't have any relationship to them in any way... other than that I have an interest in what "they" are doing here. Get the same crap on every stock/board I participate in... Whether or not you like what "they" do, I think you have to give them that they are good at what they do, are fairly predictable in doing it... and I'm counting on it.

I do see that there is a double edged sword in SEC reporting or not. Harder for investors, obviously, to keep track of what is going on in non reporting companies. Clearly the case, too, that reporting often doesn't mean that much at this end of the market, while it does impose costs companies in distress can't really afford. Still it is the case that investing risk means taking risks investing in people... so knowing the people and their abilities is one key that can matter as much or more than what you read in filings. Track record isn't everything, but it is one thing. Situation is another. The whole picture is necessarily a combination of both. So, for PWTC, knowing the track record and ability of former management gives some answers about why the company is where it is now... but doesn't provide much of utility in figuring out where it is going from here ? For that you need to know more, and know more about others than those who used to be running the show ?

I find it useful to think I know how insiders... those that matter in looking forward... expect to benefit from their efforts... and I'd rather have my interests aligned with theirs than opposed to them when I expect they will succeed in what I think they are planning... so that I'll succeed along with them. Beyond that focus on fundamentals, I layer market considerations on top of what I see... or think I see... as there is little utility in finding the fundamental successes whose successes aren't reflected in market terms.,, if they aren't going to be reflected in market terms in some useful time frame.

I often find that last point a key issue at this end of the market, where there is often both significant ability to mask and a lot of utility in masking potential and positive performance. Fundamentals and market considerations have to be paired with awareness of timing... since you can't expect to alter the timing of real developments with your investment choices, and shouldn't expect to alter either the ability, plans or the expectations of those driving the bus. The only choice you make is whether or not to ride along... so to get where you're wanting to go, you better pick the right bus at the right place at the right time.

Knowing the busses, the bus schedule, is necessary, and knowing the skills and abilities of the drivers is useful.

If you don't like my style, the way I do things, or the length of my posts... ignore me... slam me. I don't care. I'm not here to get my ego stroked.