It still amazes me how manic this stock seems to make people, almost as if you're not allowed to be an insider unless you're a manic-depressive. The strongest supporters become the most vocal critics and most willing bashers and sellers... often without anything real having changed other than their mood.
Today, without joining that trend, I am going to recognize that as a separate reality that still infects these shares, and note it is a thing that matters. I do see REAL shifts happening in the the trading patterns in the stock as a direct result, some of which suggest a major still parallel personality disorder has again been imposed on the shares behavior. I also note that the early market action paints a picture that says "someone" began sitting on this big time as soon as the good news was out... and share price clearly show it continues.
Don't fight the tape. The market is never wrong.
Or.
Manipulation.
Any here still holding out hope that the 120 day moving averages would be the short term low were disappointed yesterday. Today again saw major downside acceleration on increasing volume... on a day following a news release coming out, that it seems wasn't even noticed on Yahoo, where there wasn't a single comment about it. Insiders have gleefully pre-announced and deflated every news release long before it posts, so it is probably not a surprise that investors don't even bother to react when news releases actually do come out.
Prior to today I'd noted the recent movement as: two steps down, one step up, two steps down, one step up... the average is smoothed out in MACD to show a straight line heading down at at 45 degree angle... without any hint that there is any change in direction in the offing. Two failed rally attempts mask the day by day downside accelerations if you don't discount them. Volume doubles on the down moves and halves on the upticks, with volume also increasing daily. A flat line in a linear downtrend is a real acceleration in value lost, as each penny is a larger price percentage drop each day... and today the curve got even steeper... so we're seeing an acceleration in the rate of downward acceleration... probably moving toward the entry into a full freefall on Monday.
A collapse in investors confidence in the insiders will be the proximate cause... and, given what we've seen from them here... it is fully justified. I don't see any rational price point now that doesn't depend on first making changes we can see... to stop the insider trading, stop the flow of inside information before news releases... and to stop the release of deliberate DIS-information by insiders prior to actual news coming out. The law breaking and insider sniping has to stop.
So, it looks like we may see sub penny prices long before we see a dime again... not because the opportunity will have changed at all or because management can't make it happen... but only because a few insiders holding and selling stock are so fully and actively engaged in poisoning their own well.
Share prices hit my already overly wide stop loss triggers a while ago... directing moving out of my small, initial entry position. I'd already racked up a quick 15% loss in a very short time. I expect I'll be able to reset an entry point after it puts in an obvious bottom, and expect that will allow me to avoid forward risks and handily recoup the losses. I just have no idea where there will be a bottom. The chart still shows a 2 : 1 downside acceleration, not bottoming.
Looks like I shouldn't have given very much weight to that "gentleman's agreement" in lieu of share restrictions ? It looks like they are ALL engaged in a race to the exits, each selling before the other guy does.
Perhaps Monday will see a turnaround, instead of acceleration to the downside ?
Yesterday the shares closed below the last useful dynamic support level, well below the 120 day moving average. They have blasted right through every dynamic support level without wavering and now with an increasing rate of acceleration. It now looks like the insiders current manipulations posturing as focused on uncertainties over licensing deals and financing are making investors more and more concerned now, even more concerned than they were about the stasis that existed in the legal limbo while it was tied up in court. It seems they are right to be concerned, not over licensing or finance, but over insiders manipulations.
Insiders deliberate discussions seem to be doing more damage than that you'd get just from outsiders hinting that the deal with Acacia is dead... which insiders comments seem well designed to do. The insiders seem oblivious to their impact... a growing danger. I doubt the company has walked away from that deal, so, the suggestion is there must have been second thoughts on the other side that got the talk about hiring "fresh faced kid" lawyers started ? Otherwise, talking about direct hiring fresh faced kids as replacements for the extensive experience and capability that was captured in the prior period with Acacia... seems only purposeful.
Looks to me like insiders manipulation of these shares isn't "past history" as we'd hoped. Otherwise, if they are serious about this being an ongoing internal debate... I'm not sure I want to own these shares again if these bozo shareholders are going to be screwing up every effort and damaging every new initiative before it even begins, even as management is working hard trying to accomplish those things, apparently without ANY support from the ego driven insiders.
There seems to be REAL concern building that the failure to timely finance the effort will still result only in very rapidly surrendering any larger residual values to Diac. Insiders ill-advised discussions seem to make realizing that outcome more and more likely.
I'm generally optimistic about the company, its management and its potential, but it is pretty hard to argue with the tape and the insider driven trends in sentiment here. What the tape is saying is that the old lows will be tested sooner rather than later... and if, given the obvious manipulation and insider selling, the share price direction and financing problems aren't solved rapidly, we may never see these share price levels again with the current ownership structure.
I expect the manipulation efforts will have unintended consequences. That now seems more and more likely to me, but I don't think that it was or is inevitable.
After some truly heroic measures were taken to save this baby... now a small group of self interested insiders seem to be doing all they can to drive a knife through its heart... apparently now thinking that because others well crafted heroic measures succeeded once, that singular success must mean that the baby can't be killed by a couple of idiots playing with knives and trying to cut each other. The knife play here and in the market now seems intended to prove it. They are wrong, of course... the insiders stupidity can still easily kill this baby.
The games being played now makes it seem more likely to me that there will soon be buying opportunities well BELOW the prices paid by the insiders recently... ironically, ONLY because of the choices being made by the insiders themselves... and that seems to me, now without any doubt, to be what is responsible for the major accelerations in sentiment, price and volume to the downside.
My own inclination, given the problematic efforts in sabotage seen from insiders here, and given my need to be rational, would be to withdraw my interest entirely, until such time as the insider incontinence and Diac debt issues are both fully resolved.
Support of the insiders positions from others is not a given and should not be assumed... it needs to be earned... and it is not being earned here.
As that shift in my understanding of relative positions becomes necessary, it seems likely that it may also result in a shift in my future interest. Not having a major holding I have no major commitment to the current ownership structure. I'd expect my interest may shift to lobbying to encourage Diac in aggressive and immediate foreclosure... as it seems Diac is the only insider here who is actually concerned about, interested in and actually doing something about moving forward, acting in common interest with investors, rather than playing at stupid and destructive stock manipulations using internet word games.
I expect my meaning won't be missed. I don't want to see share prices decline, but they likely should reflect a value that includes the risks that those holding new major positions will blow up the opportunity rather than allow the value to be recognized. Sound familiar? I'm not encouraging shares price declines, but it is impossible to ignore them, while also demanding changes in insider behavior that create the problem. I'd prefer a level of stability that preserves the current situation, but I also have been clear about what I think is causing prices to decline, and I'm not optimistic we will see change soon, so it becomes rational to seek change... and wait until it happens before buying.
I'm not wanting to be forced into AGAIN advocating for change as the only path forward... I'm disgusted by the apparent need... but I am unhappy with the ongoing manipulation, insider sniping and the posting of inside information and insider generated disinformation, among the endless BS. Instead, I'd rather see owners with a focus on getting the job done and supporting the company management team in getting it done. I expect there won't be value available here until that situation exists.
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