Replies to post #7865 on *~1Best~* Market Timing & Trend-Signals

[*~1Best~*]

US debt going ballistic:

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES

 
  
                                                      (in billions of dollars) 
                                                    HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD 
  
  
                                                                                      New 5/  Old 5/ 
                                                                                      Series  Series 
                        Feb     Jan     Dec     Nov     Oct     Sep     Aug     Jul     Jun     Jun     May     Apr     Mar     Feb 
 Country               2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007 
                      ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------ 
  
 Japan                 586.6   586.9   581.2   590.9   601.7   591.9   595.8   620.6   622.9   612.9   615.0   614.6   611.4   616.4 
 China, Mainland       486.9   492.6   477.6   458.9   459.1   467.7   471.2   480.0   477.3   405.2   407.5   414.2   420.0   416.0 
 United Kingdom 2/     180.7   157.2   156.7   172.3   151.4   125.1   101.5    67.3    50.0   192.2   169.5   135.4   147.9   121.6 
 Brazil                146.6   141.7   129.9   121.7   113.9   110.5   107.7   105.8    94.8    93.7    81.6    79.7    69.7    60.7 
 Oil Exporters 3/      146.1   140.9   137.9   138.7   141.6   137.1   134.7   134.7   133.2   122.1   121.1   112.0   112.5   110.5 
 Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/   103.0   108.1   116.4   107.4   105.6    99.1   103.8    70.7    78.2    42.8    47.2    75.6    79.9    65.6 
 Luxembourg             83.1    68.4    69.7    68.3    63.3    58.4    57.1    57.6    55.9    62.6    62.2    61.8    61.8    59.8 
 Hong Kong              57.6    54.5    51.0    51.6    51.1    52.5    53.1    55.9    57.3    60.5    58.6    56.3    58.5    57.3 
 Germany                42.5    43.1    41.7    39.1    41.8    41.8    42.3    41.7    45.9    48.3    51.4    49.8    47.6    47.9 
 Korea                  41.4    42.1    39.2    37.8    37.0    39.4    42.6    44.4    43.7    50.0    52.1    54.1    57.9    56.9 
 Switzerland            39.4    39.3    38.9    38.1    37.8    37.0    37.4    37.2    38.3    32.2    31.9    32.3    32.9    32.7 
 Taiwan                 38.8    38.9    38.2    37.1    40.7    39.9    39.5    44.6    44.7    57.5    57.4    59.2    58.1    57.5 
 Russia                 38.4    35.2    32.7    33.5    33.6    31.8    31.9    35.9    33.5    14.7    11.8     7.7     7.4     8.1 
 Mexico                 36.5    35.5    34.4    32.0    30.5    30.0    30.2    34.9    33.9    36.6    35.5    35.5    35.3    35.0 
 Norway                 34.0    33.6    26.2    27.6    25.5    22.9     6.4      --     3.1      --      --     2.1     7.3    12.5 
 Singapore              33.3    38.3    39.7    40.1    38.8    36.6    37.8    36.3    36.0    33.0    34.4    32.1    28.8    31.2 
 Thailand               30.5    28.9    27.4    27.5    22.8    24.7    22.9    22.5    20.6    17.8    18.7    16.8    17.8    16.8 
 Turkey                 28.5    28.2    25.6    25.6    28.1    28.3    29.2    28.5    28.7    27.1    27.0    26.2    27.6    25.4 
 Canada                 21.4    23.0    17.5    22.8    15.5    17.6    19.2    23.3    24.6    30.5    33.6    29.8    31.5    30.1 
 Ireland                15.6    15.6    18.7    17.5    17.0    16.3    16.8    15.6    15.8    12.0    12.0     8.5    11.7    12.5 
 India                  14.4    14.6    14.9    14.8    14.9    10.8    12.1    14.1    14.0    12.8    15.3    20.0    20.1    19.5 
 Netherlands            14.1    15.9    15.2    14.2    14.8    15.1    16.6    15.7    16.5    21.2    20.0    21.3    21.4    21.5 
 Sweden                 13.6    13.4    13.7    14.1    14.5    14.8    15.7    15.5    15.1    15.7    15.4    14.8    14.9    14.9 
 Belgium                13.2    13.1    13.2    14.2    14.6    14.6    14.6    15.4    15.2    11.9    12.1    12.9    12.3    12.9 
 Egypt                  12.0    11.6    10.4    10.6     9.9     9.9    10.1    10.2    10.0     6.4     6.3     6.0     6.1     5.4 
 Italy                  11.3    12.7    14.6    15.5    14.1    13.4    13.2    13.9    14.0    13.5    13.4    13.3    13.9    13.4 
 Philippines            10.4    10.3    10.1     9.6     9.5     9.0     8.4     8.6     9.0     8.1     7.8     7.5     7.3     7.2 
 All Other             156.4   157.3   160.5   155.0   146.7   146.3   149.1   150.3   159.8   150.5   166.1   167.0   173.1   174.0 
 Grand Total          2436.2  2401.0  2353.5  2336.4  2296.0  2242.2  2221.0  2201.0  2192.0  2191.7  2185.0  2166.7  2194.8  2143.3 
  
 Of which: 
  For. Official       1681.6  1688.0  1641.1  1619.1  1613.8  1607.7  1595.1  1621.0  1612.6  1443.1  1448.4  1458.4  1466.0  1451.5 
   Treasury Bills      204.3   207.1   196.3   185.3   180.4   178.3   180.0   176.2   160.9   160.9   172.7   178.1   195.1   182.0 
   T-Bonds & Notes    1477.3  1480.9  1444.8  1433.8  1433.4  1429.4  1415.1  1444.7  1451.7  1282.1  1275.7  1280.3  1270.9  1269.5 
  
 Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board 
 April 15, 2008 
  
  1/  Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes 
      reported under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual 
      Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data. 
  2/  United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man. 
  3/  Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, 
      Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. 
  4/  Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. 
      Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands. 
  5/  New series reflect new benchmark survey taken in this month.  Estimated positions based on the 
      previous survey are shown for comparison. 
  
 

[*~1Best~*]

Markets are under green greed monster attack - crazy pop will melt away.

[*~1Best~*]

MSFT/YHOO deal will not make "U.S. Trade Deficit" better


$238,553,686,574.75

will not make this number any better



What does this number actually mean?

The number above represents the U.S. trade deficit, up until this second, for the year 2008. A trade deficit is a calculation of the difference between the goods and services Americans sell to foreigners and the goods and services that Americans purchase from foreigners. A trade deficit with one country or in one year is not necessarily worrisome, and according to standard economic theory, will correct itself over time. But the theory has been proved wrong over the last 30 years as the United States has run consistent and increasing trade deficits. The enormous size of the trade deficits over the last several years raises the possibility of a severe international economic crisis should foreigners begin to dump the dollars they hold in world currency markets. The trade deficit is calculated on an annual basis, so the number above was $0.00 on January 1st, 2008.

How is it calculated?

The figures for each month's trade deficit are published to the general public approximately two months after the last day of the month. For example, the final trade deficit for January 2001 was published in March 2001. The Trade Ticker records the monthly trade deficit when it is published, and calculates the number above, to the nearest second. The running total for the year is calculated, then the average increment per second is added for every second since the release of the latest figures.

The number looks like a lot of money, but what does it mean for me?

Thousands of U.S. layoffs occur every week. You only have to look at AmericanEconomicAlert.org's news section to see the number of US jobs that are being cut across a wide range of industries. A high percentage of these layoffs are as a direct result of competition from foreign companies. Eventually, as more and more money leaves the U.S., our businesses will be powerless to prevent further such activity.


Monthly Trade Figures Since January 2003

Month US Trade Deficit ($ millions)

February 2008 $62,300
January 2008 $58,900
December 2007 $57,896
November 2007 $62,408
October 2007 $57,586
September 2007 $56,945
August 2007 $56,729
July 2007 $58,895
June 2007 $59,983
May 2007 $60,274
April 2007 $59,213
March 2007 $63,035
February 2007 $58,228
January 2007 $57,356
December 2006 $61,453
November 2006 $58,214
October 2006 $58,926
September 2006 $64,603
August 2006 $68,915
July 2006 $67,882
June 2006 $64,695
May 2006 $65,340
April 2006 $63,598
March 2006 $62,266
February 2006 $62,912
January 2006 $66,470
December 2005 $65,074
November 2005 $64,462
October 2005 $67,836
September 2005 $65,585
August 2005 $58,462
July 2005 $57,355
June 2005 $59,130
May 2005 $55,971
April 2005 $57,681
March 2005 $53,754
February 2005 $60,114
January 2005 $58,267
December 2004 $54,672
November 2004 $58,977
October 2004 $55,574
September 2004 $51,939
August 2004 $54,195
July 2004 $51,331
June 2004 $54,894
May 2004 $48,472
April 2004 $48,406
March 2004 $46,966
Feb 2004 $45,834
Jan 2004 $46,053
Dec 2003 $43,742
Nov 2003 $39,559
Oct 2003 $41,126
Sept 2003 $41,645
Aug 2003 $40,125
Jul 2003 $40,929
Jun 2003 $39,882
May 2003 $40,792
April 2003 $42,176
Mar 2003 $43,543
Feb 2003 $40,073
Jan 2003 $41,218