Replies to post #7867 on *~1Best~* Market Timing & Trend-Signals

[*~1Best~*]

American spendholics ~~ re: Jobless Claims Jump, but Consumer Spending Up

With the international funds trading US markets which are easier to make huge money than gambling with colluded trading, it is obvious that funds are moving from one sector to another. Large funds can move the markets such as moving money from commodity to stocks, etc.

This implies that US financial markets are like a big easy money making entity at the expense of big 401k holders and sheepster traders.

With huge trade deficit and weak job markets, there is nothing so bullish, market actions like yesterday setting up disaster melt-down.

Personal spending up: must be spending tax rebates even before they receive it.

Markets already priced in the tax rebate spending.

American spendholics still loves materialism while US is sold off in pieces and now with huge debt.

"Just make money" mentality made Americans robed and debted.




~~~



Jobless Claims Jump, but Consumer Spending Up
By Reuters
Reuters
| 01 May 2008 | 07:43 AM ET

The number of U.S. workers applying for jobless benefits surged last week in gloomy news for the labor market, but personal spending in March was stronger than expected, government data on Thursday showed.

Initial claims rose by 35,000 and the number of workers remaining on jobless benefits climbed to a four-year high, the Labor Department said, helping prices in the bond market as investor bet on another rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

"After seeing an improvement trend much of April, the sudden deterioration at the end of the month is certainly disappointing," said Richard DeKaser, chief economist at National City in Cleveland, Ohio.

A housing crisis has chilled U.S. growth and seen the Federal Reserve slash interest rates aggressively, with the central bank delivering another 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday to 2 percent.

Initial claims for jobless benefits increased to a seasonally adjusted 380,000 in the week ended April 26, from a revised 345,000 the previous week. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected claims to rise to 360,000 from an initially reported 342,000.

The four-week moving average of new claims, a more reliable guide to underlying labor trends that irons out weekly fluctuations, fell last week to 363,750 from 370,250.

But the number of workers remaining on jobless benefits jumped to a bigger-than-expected 3.019 million in the week ended April 19. That was the highest level since April 2004.

Analysts were expecting continuing claims to rise to 2.95 million.

"The report certainly does indicate the job market is weaker, though that is not much of a surprise. There have been mass layoffs, especially on Wall Street," said Andrew Richman at Suntrust's personal asset management unit.

Adding to the gloomy jobs picture, a report from the Chicago-based Challenger Gray and Christmas showed a 19-month high in the number of planned job cuts during April and a 68 percent rise from March.

"This is the biggest job-cut month we have seen since the onset of the housing collapse," said John Challenger, who heads the job outplacement tracking firm.

SPENDING UP

A separate release from the Commerce Department showed that U.S. personal spending rose by 0.4 percent in March, twice as much as forecast, while a key inflation measure was up by a bit more than expected.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast personal spending to rise 0.2 percent compared with 0.1 percent gain the previous month as the U.S. housing crisis chilled economic activity and pinched consumers.

The Commerce Department said that personal income was up 0.3 percent in March, slightly under forecasts for a 0.4 percent rise and after a 0.5 percent February gain.

But adjusted for inflation, income stagnated after increasing by 0.3 percent in February.

"This tells us we are ending the quarter on a relatively up note. This portends we could see better consumption pattern in the second quarter," said DeKaser.

The overall personal consumption expenditures price index, which measures the price pressures faced by consumers, rose 0.3 percent in March from a 0.1 percent increase the month before.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE price index, which is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, was up 0.2 percent versus forecast for a 0.1 percent rise. That followed a 0.1 percent gain in February.

[*~1Best~*]

Commodity prices are hyped otherwise many would not make millions and billions out of markets while consumers and US economy is being threatened. Know with whom you are talking with and know who is expressing what information and for whose interest!

 
  
 MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES 
  
  
  
                                                      (in billions of dollars) 
                                                    HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD 
  
  
                                                                                      New 5/  Old 5/ 
                                                                                      Series  Series 
                        Feb     Jan     Dec     Nov     Oct     Sep     Aug     Jul     Jun     Jun     May     Apr     Mar     Feb 
 Country               2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007 
                      ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------ 
  
 Japan                 586.6   586.9   581.2   590.9   601.7   591.9   595.8   620.6   622.9   612.9   615.0   614.6   611.4   616.4 
 China, Mainland       486.9   492.6   477.6   458.9   459.1   467.7   471.2   480.0   477.3   405.2   407.5   414.2   420.0   416.0 
 United Kingdom 2/     180.7   157.2   156.7   172.3   151.4   125.1   101.5    67.3    50.0   192.2   169.5   135.4   147.9   121.6 
 Brazil                146.6   141.7   129.9   121.7   113.9   110.5   107.7   105.8    94.8    93.7    81.6    79.7    69.7    60.7 
 Oil Exporters 3/      146.1   140.9   137.9   138.7   141.6   137.1   134.7   134.7   133.2   122.1   121.1   112.0   112.5   110.5 
 Carib Bnkng Ctrs 4/   103.0   108.1   116.4   107.4   105.6    99.1   103.8    70.7    78.2    42.8    47.2    75.6    79.9    65.6 
 Luxembourg             83.1    68.4    69.7    68.3    63.3    58.4    57.1    57.6    55.9    62.6    62.2    61.8    61.8    59.8 
 Hong Kong              57.6    54.5    51.0    51.6    51.1    52.5    53.1    55.9    57.3    60.5    58.6    56.3    58.5    57.3 
 Germany                42.5    43.1    41.7    39.1    41.8    41.8    42.3    41.7    45.9    48.3    51.4    49.8    47.6    47.9 
 Korea                  41.4    42.1    39.2    37.8    37.0    39.4    42.6    44.4    43.7    50.0    52.1    54.1    57.9    56.9 
 Switzerland            39.4    39.3    38.9    38.1    37.8    37.0    37.4    37.2    38.3    32.2    31.9    32.3    32.9    32.7 
 Taiwan                 38.8    38.9    38.2    37.1    40.7    39.9    39.5    44.6    44.7    57.5    57.4    59.2    58.1    57.5 
 Russia                 38.4    35.2    32.7    33.5    33.6    31.8    31.9    35.9    33.5    14.7    11.8     7.7     7.4     8.1 
 Mexico                 36.5    35.5    34.4    32.0    30.5    30.0    30.2    34.9    33.9    36.6    35.5    35.5    35.3    35.0 
 Norway                 34.0    33.6    26.2    27.6    25.5    22.9     6.4      --     3.1      --      --     2.1     7.3    12.5 
 Singapore              33.3    38.3    39.7    40.1    38.8    36.6    37.8    36.3    36.0    33.0    34.4    32.1    28.8    31.2 
 Thailand               30.5    28.9    27.4    27.5    22.8    24.7    22.9    22.5    20.6    17.8    18.7    16.8    17.8    16.8 
 Turkey                 28.5    28.2    25.6    25.6    28.1    28.3    29.2    28.5    28.7    27.1    27.0    26.2    27.6    25.4 
 Canada                 21.4    23.0    17.5    22.8    15.5    17.6    19.2    23.3    24.6    30.5    33.6    29.8    31.5    30.1 
 Ireland                15.6    15.6    18.7    17.5    17.0    16.3    16.8    15.6    15.8    12.0    12.0     8.5    11.7    12.5 
 India                  14.4    14.6    14.9    14.8    14.9    10.8    12.1    14.1    14.0    12.8    15.3    20.0    20.1    19.5 
 Netherlands            14.1    15.9    15.2    14.2    14.8    15.1    16.6    15.7    16.5    21.2    20.0    21.3    21.4    21.5 
 Sweden                 13.6    13.4    13.7    14.1    14.5    14.8    15.7    15.5    15.1    15.7    15.4    14.8    14.9    14.9 
 Belgium                13.2    13.1    13.2    14.2    14.6    14.6    14.6    15.4    15.2    11.9    12.1    12.9    12.3    12.9 
 Egypt                  12.0    11.6    10.4    10.6     9.9     9.9    10.1    10.2    10.0     6.4     6.3     6.0     6.1     5.4 
 Italy                  11.3    12.7    14.6    15.5    14.1    13.4    13.2    13.9    14.0    13.5    13.4    13.3    13.9    13.4 
 Philippines            10.4    10.3    10.1     9.6     9.5     9.0     8.4     8.6     9.0     8.1     7.8     7.5     7.3     7.2 
 All Other             156.4   157.3   160.5   155.0   146.7   146.3   149.1   150.3   159.8   150.5   166.1   167.0   173.1   174.0 
 Grand Total          2436.2  2401.0  2353.5  2336.4  2296.0  2242.2  2221.0  2201.0  2192.0  2191.7  2185.0  2166.7  2194.8  2143.3 
  
 Of which: 
  For. Official       1681.6  1688.0  1641.1  1619.1  1613.8  1607.7  1595.1  1621.0  1612.6  1443.1  1448.4  1458.4  1466.0  1451.5 
   Treasury Bills      204.3   207.1   196.3   185.3   180.4   178.3   180.0   176.2   160.9   160.9   172.7   178.1   195.1   182.0 
   T-Bonds & Notes    1477.3  1480.9  1444.8  1433.8  1433.4  1429.4  1415.1  1444.7  1451.7  1282.1  1275.7  1280.3  1270.9  1269.5 
  
 Department of the Treasury/Federal Reserve Board 
 April 15, 2008 
  
  1/  Estimated foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and non-marketable bills, bonds, and notes 
      reported under the Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system are based on annual 
      Surveys of Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities and on monthly data. 
  2/  United Kingdom includes Channel Islands and Isle of Man. 
  3/  Oil exporters include Ecuador, Venezuela, Indonesia, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, 
      Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Gabon, Libya, and Nigeria. 
  4/  Caribbean Banking Centers include Bahamas, Bermuda, Cayman Islands, Netherlands Antilles and Panama. 
      Beginning with new series for June 2006, also includes British Virgin Islands. 
  5/  New series reflect new benchmark survey taken in this month.  Estimated positions based on the 
      previous survey are shown for comparison.