Yes, the currencies are at a crossroads, that is clear. However, what will jump start a dollar reversal? There are still more shoes that can drop. We are sitting on enormous risks, not the least of which are the ticking time bombs of the GSEs Fannie and Freddie Mac.
More foreclosures, more bankruptcies in both households and businesses, more defaults in Alt-A, possibly A mortgages, more defaults in credit cards, car loans and student loans are expected. All of this against a backdrop of credit drying up for homeowner and business alike, and unforseen oil and food price rises.
With business bankruptcies will come greater unemployment. Rising costs, falling incomes and profits...a sad cycle.
Can we truly say, with conviction that the worst is behind us in the US? I can't, although I wish it were