Replies to post #427 on Gold Exploration in West Africa

[FL]

Kenor is now trading as Guinor (GNR.TO)

My last message listed Kenor (457810.NO) as the name of the Norwegian gold producer/explorer (in Guinea and Ghana), but since last week it has traded as Guinor (GNR.TO) on the Toronto exchnge. It has shot up from C$1.03 to C$1.70, on modest volume for a new issue. Kenor in Norway had the longer history needed to classify the stock into one of the three categories described.

FL

[FL]

"Simplistic Triage" of gold stocks. Updated.

Classify the stocks into DONE-WELL, DONE-POORLY, or DONE-OTHERWISE.

Here's an update of the "Simplistic Triage" classification of recent price performance, based only on the commonly-shown moving averages. (This message is a reply to my last message on the subject.)

Use only the ordering of PRESENT, 50-DAY, and 200-DAY averages. If the PRESENT price is above the 50-DAY average, which is in turn above the 200-DAY average, declare that the stock has "DONE-WELL." If the 200-DAY average is above the 50-DAY, which is in turn above the PRESENT price, say the stock has "DONE-POORLY." For any other ordering of these three, say the stock has "DONE-OTHERWISE".

Using this acme of sophistication, how would the West African gold stocks be classified now (July 7, 2004)? Thusly:
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DONE-WELL (4): African Metals (AFR.V), Glencar (Ireland), Great Quest (GQ.V), Jilbey (JLB.V).
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DONE-POORLY (17): Afcan (AFK.TO), Afminex (AFM.ASX), AfriOre (AFO.TO), Akrokeri-Ashanti (AKR.V), AMI Resources (AMU.V), Cassidy (CDY.V), Channel Res. (CHU.V), Delta (DEV.V), Gold Fields (GFI), Managem (MNG.Casablanca), North Atlantic (NAC.TO), Red Back (RBI.V), St. Jude (SJD.V), Sanu (SNU.V), Searchgold (RSG.V), Semafo (SMF.TO), Solomon (SRB.V).
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DONE-OTHERWISE (24): Adamus (ADU.ASX), African gold PLC (AFG.UK), Australian United (AUL.ASX), Axmin (AXM.V), Birim (BGI.TO), Columbia River (CRVV), Defiance (DM.TO), Equigold (EQI.ASX), Etruscan (EET.TO), Goldbelt (GLD.H), Golden Star (GSC.TO), GSS), High River (HRG.TO), Iamgold (IMG.TO, IAG), Mano River (MNO.V), Moydow (MOY.TO), Nevsun (NSU.TO), Orezone (OZN.TO, OZN), PMI Ventures (PMV.V), Randgold Resources (GOLD), Resolute (RSG.ASX), Riverstone (RVS.V), Robex (RBX.V), Takoradi (TKG.ASX).
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UNDEFINED (new 2): African Gold Group (AGG.V), Guinor (GNR.TO).
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Most of the "DONE-OTHERWISE" in fact did very poorly until they recently pulled up (or at least flattened) above their declining 50-day moving averages.

The clear successes are Glencar (steady quadrupling) and Jilbey (recent breakout), with Great Quest, African Metal (volatile!) and Orezone in "holding patterns". Robex did very well until late April, especially after its German stock exchange listing. (As for my beloved Birim, Cassidy and St. Jude, ... Ugh!)

Again, this triage takes no account of the AMOUNT of decline or rise. Some of the DONE-OTHERWISE's were much worse than some of the DONE-POORLY's, in percent declines.

FL