Classify the stocks: WELL, POORLY, OTHERWISE
Here's one arbitrary classification of recent price performance, based on the commonly-shown moving averages.
The idea is to note only the ordering of PRESENT price, 50-DAY, and 200-DAY averages.
If the PRESENT price is above the 50-DAY average, which is in turn above the 200-DAY average, declare that the stock has been doing "WELL."
If the 200-DAY average is above the 50-DAY, which is in turn above the PRESENT price, declare that the stock has been doing "POORLY."
For any other ordering of these three, say the stock has been doing "OTHERWISE".
Using this acme of sophistication, how would the West African golds be allocated now (April 17, 2004)?
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Done WELL: Columbia River CRVV.PK, Goldbelt GLDH.V, Goldcrest GCL.V, Golden Star GSS GSC.TO (barely), Jilbey JLB.V, Kenor 457810.NO, Robex RBX.V
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Done POORLY: Akrokeri-Ashanti AKR.V, Afri Ore AFO.TO, AMI Res AMU.V, Champion Res CHA.V (barely), Great Quest GQ.V, Moydow MOY.TO, Nevsun NSU.TO, PMI Ventures PMI.V, Randgold Res GOLD
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Done OTHERWISE: Adamus ADU.AU, African Metals AFR.V, Axmin AXM.V, Birim BGI.TO, Caldera CDR.TO, Cassidy CDY.V, Channel CHU.V, Etruscan EET.TO, High River HRG.TO (barely), Mano River MNO.V, N Atlantic Nickel NAC.TO, Red Back RBK.AU, Riverstone RVS.V, St. Jude SJD.V, Searchgold RSG.V, Semafo SMF.TO
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I left out out Fairstar since they're basically out of West Africa, and probably should exclude Moydow too, though they both retain royalty or similar interests. I include Randgold Resources. African Gold AGG.V hasn't been trading long enough for this classification, but it's done well due to its first few days. Under this classification, Ashanti Goldfields ASL and Iamgold IAG would be doing "OTHERWISE" while Gold Fields GFI (about 1/3 Ghanaian) would be doing "POORLY."
This rough-cut system takes no account of the size of the moves, and there are borderline cases like Champion which has really been doing OK. Different choices of times for the averages would give different results. It could be argued that the relation between the two averages is unimportant if the present price is above (or below) both.
FL
