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loss_slayer

03/31/08 3:46 AM

#659 RE: P-Node #655

P-Node

I like the way you look at this and I agree....how can you make a decision....that is why I said we should have no trading until we get something final.
I know this 3 billion shares if that is the real number should put this just based on what the lenders in the deal is paying out at about 75cents a share. Their cost.I think may be less. Question is assuming they get the shares cause deal goes throughs how can they ever get that many out into the market without killing the share price for many many months or even for years.Naturally they are going to want to recoup their costs and make a killing as well.
They won't do this deal for marginal profits.Too much risk.The news said the lenders will get x amount of warrants to convert to shares at .01 but I think in reality the overall cost to be around 75 cents per warrant just to get the right. So they need to put the shares back into the market in trading for at least that much just to break even.
I can be all wrong about this. But paying over a dollar for this stock seems awfully risky.I'd say they will sell shares forever almost for 75 cents and above. But Thornburg would survive for at least another year.I feel like the banks are saying take this deal or we will sell all your stuff to the group making this offer to you. I think I read someplace Thornberg has 7.5 billion in mortgages held by the banks.
Good luck to you too and its been fun talking with you P-Node.Oh and if the lenders have an agreement with the banks......there will be no risk at all these guys as they have the same collateral as the banks and first pick at the best properties if Thornberg goes away....imo only