Seeking Alpha The story for investors is that these partial results bring cumulative testing from the four wells drilled at the CX-11 platform to more than 13,600 barrels of oil per day and 184 million cubic feet of gas per day. Shareholders panicked by what is fundamentally a very strong set of test results should also note that the 18XD well is only a small part of BPZ's initial drilling campaign at a single platform (CX-11) in a much larger, multi-platform field (Corvina field) within a multi-field complex (Corvina complex) in a single BPZ block that contains 16 mapped geologic structures, including the highly prospective Albacora field and the Delfin and Mero fields.
2) Could any of the resident oilfield experts here weigh in on the likelihood of those special perforating guns being the magic solution to the issue of having to use such heavy drilling mud to drill through the high-pressure zones?
3) This well was drilled in about half the time they had publicly expected it to be drilled (1 vs. 2 months). Could the speed with which it was drilled somehow have messed things up for the completion? Or conversely, did that help the cause, and if they had taken longer, things would have been even worse at this point?
4) According to the latest slide deck, BPZ estimates it has discovered 315 BCF of gas (1P, SPE). Could someone remind me, what was the minimum amount of reserves required for the electicity plant? If memory serves, it was only around 200 BCF, which would imply that, if Netherland Sewall agrees with BPZ's estimates, BPZ will have well over the amount of reserves required for the plant. Thus, it would seem that BPZ is now in a position to start actively working on not only Phase I of their gas-to-power strategy but also Phase II (i.e. finding a home for the surplus gas needed for Phase I).
5) The reasoning behind TheStreet.com's "Hold" opinion on BPZ is so silly that it doesn't even warrant comment. Has anyone seen any update reports by any of the "real" analysts following BPZ that were issued after the latest PR, and if so did any of them lower price targets and/or their investment opinion on the stock? I saw the comments from several of them that were pasted here on Monday, the day before the PR,and those sounded like they were, net-net, holding the bullish line on the stock.
6) In the latest slide deck, BPZ's estimated '09 production is less than 4 X its estimated 4Q '08 production. This seems odd given that they expect to be getting a whole new field into production in '09 (Albacora), so one would think that that new production should more than offset production declines at Corvina.
7) The timing of the CFO's is, at best, a poor example of how our public securities markets are supposed to operate. He must have (or should have) known that the company was going to be putting out a PR the next morning on the initial test results of the 18XD well. As an insider he should have waited until the disemination of that PR before selling.
----- Re: Various Musings "6) In the latest slide deck, BPZ's estimated '09 production is less than 4 X its estimated 4Q '08 production. This seems odd given that they expect to be getting a whole new field into production in '09 (Albacora), so one would think that that new production should more than offset production declines at Corvina."
If you are refering to slide #7 alone you are right that production is projected to be somewhat less but if you look at slide #16 you will see a 2009 estimated production at Albacora of an additional 750,000 bpd in 2009.
Corvina and Albacora together come to a 2009 production estimate of 3,300,000 barrels (or $224,400,000 @ $68/barrel). Per share value of production in 2009 is about $3.07.
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