Replies to post #65677 on InterDigital Inc (IDCC)

[JimLur]

Thanks for sharing the comments.

[jai]

Maybe you can give Fagan a call, he may need a little help.

[davids]

RE: "My conversation with a older fund manager."

"I mention that 75% of the wireless world is taking the Wideband CDMA path. This should give IDCC terrific future earnings. I use my conservative numbers for IDCC 3G wireless devices as 45 million in 2005, 100 million for 2006, 225 million for 2007 and 350 million for 2008. I explain that IDCC will get 2-3% of $80( average device sale). I wait and he does the math. He is now ALL EARS. "

There is a big difference between 2-3% and 0.75%.
In the past, here on this board, rates from 2-5% were considered reasonable expectations. Recently, there seemed to be board consensus around 0.5%-1%, with 1% resulting in "dancing in the streets". Then 2-3% is stated to a fund manager, posted on the board, and not challenged.

?? ?? ??

Davids

[Eneerg]

8 mln 3G users in Europe by 2005

If Western Europe replicates the Japanese adoption timeline, there will be more than 8 mln W-CDMA users in the region by mid-2005 (2.4% of 340 mln). There's no doubt the two markets are very different; the main difference is the attitude of consumers toward mobile data. However, there are strong reasons to believe the pace of European 3G adoption will equal or exceed Japan's.

First, most carriers are conducting pre-commercial trials and will launch commercial services in 2004. Carrier pressure on vendors and greater economies of scale will mean better and cheaper equipment, while the lessons of DoCoMo and 3 should help other providers avoid early technical problems.

In addition, there is the lack of competing technologies. Where CDMA and 1X upgrades will compete with W-CDMA in Japan, there is no comparable cellular broadband technology being deployed in Western Europe. Interim or parallel technologies such as EDGE and Wi-Fi have similar characteristics but cannot match the attributes and benefits of W-CDMA.

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