Replies to post #116206 on ajtj99's Market Pulse

[jdaasoc]

With UI numbers being basically flat and not indicating major downturn in domestic economy, market typically would rally by end of day.

However, nothing is typical for this market. I see DAX and Shanghai in so much disarray. US equity markets including treasurys are not the "safe haven" anymore. Commodities and mattress is where money is heading.

Until commodites bubble is popped don't look for any sustainable rally.

[ajtj99]

Well, it's even worse than the news suggests.

Retail sales for the trailing 3-months are down 0.9% total. Add in in another 1.5% inflation and you've got retail sales down almost 2.5% in real terms.

Since consumer spending is about 2/3rds of the overall economy, we're looking at about a 10% annual drop in real consumer spending at the trailing 3-month rate. That's like a 6.6% drop in GDP from consumer pullback alone.