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Californicator

02/28/08 5:15 AM

#24139 RE: stervc #24138

Great dd post....A must read for all. Thank you stervc for your valuable time.

SilverEagle

02/28/08 5:20 AM

#24140 RE: stervc #24138

What a great post! Thanks stervc!

0.0011 = Current HCPC Valuation

0.089 = Current HCPC “Potential” Valuation

But this is derived only from upfront revenues from the funding... This could go higher because they are intend to buy back more shares from monthly interest revenues.


Dear Shareholders:

This letter provides a brief update on Heritage Capital Credit Corporation, and its
wholly-owned subsidiary Independent Capital Credit Corporation.

As previously announced the company intends to repurchase shares with the revenue
from the funding of projects. Changes in the manner of funding, will decrease the
upfront fees earned by ICCC, however, ICCC will earn additional interest income from
the portfolio it will hold. ICCC will allocate up to 35%of the upfront fees earned to share
buyback and additionally will use a portion of the interest income generated monthly to
repurchase stock.


goldwingeurope

02/28/08 5:47 AM

#24142 RE: stervc #24138

My friends at a big Luxemburg Bank are looking into it. Great post. glta

investor911

02/28/08 7:13 AM

#24147 RE: stervc #24138

Great Post. Buying at 3.4 or 5 won't matter in matter of weeks.

Maldical

02/28/08 7:31 AM

#24157 RE: stervc #24138

Another great post Sterling. As you pointed out these numbers are conservative because not only does it not account for interest but also your potential calculations don't reflect a reduction of the O/S(your EPS should be much higher than 0074). Now let's hope an actual buy-back occurs like they have PR'd multiple times.

RizZo

02/28/08 7:33 AM

#24158 RE: stervc #24138

Always thank you for a good read and insight Sterling.

Glty

uranium-pinto-beans

02/28/08 8:23 AM

#24192 RE: stervc #24138

as always stervc an amazing job and a fabulous post!!!! i dont think im the only one who values all you bring to the table!! giddy up!!! LOL

mick

02/28/08 8:33 AM

#24205 RE: stervc #24138

$0.085 ,,,hi sterling good morning. i was blogging for HCPC and i did find what you say for poteential evaluation.

it is here at this yhoo blog.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27185932


cash i started here for blogs. insiders? feb.22,????

http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Heritage+Capital+Credit+Corporation+%2F+blogs&fr=yfp-t-501&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8

HCPC.PK: Insider Transactions for HERITAGE CAP CREDIT - Yahoo! Finance
Get the latest insider transactions for HERITAGE CAP CREDIT (HCPC.PK) ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC.PK) On Feb 22: 0.0001 0.00 (0.00%) MORE ON HCPC.PK ...
http://www.finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HCPC.PK - 19k - Cached

i opened it,

none so far.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HCPC.PK

and here

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=27186060

this one above is a click to from yhoo.

i'll give da page when i can get there.

just a few,





mick

02/28/08 8:38 AM

#24215 RE: stervc #24138

i'm at the link for HCPC now...page one,,,
yhoo
http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Heritage+Capital+Credit+Corporation+%2F+blogs&fr=yfp-t-501&toggle=1&cop=mss&ei=UTF-8

HCPC.PK: Summary for HERITAGE CAP CREDIT - Yahoo! Finance
Get detailed information on HERITAGE CAP CREDIT (HCPC.PK) including quote performance, Real-Time ECN, technical ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation, ...
finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hcpc.pk&d=t - 36k - Cached
RedTram News Search Engine | Heritage Capital Credit Corporation ...
Blogs. Economics & Finance. Science & Education. Culture & Arts. State & Community ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (Pink Sheets: HCPC) today announced that it ...
en.redtram.com/go/72596875/top100 - 62k - Cached
RedTram News Search Engine | Heritage Capital Credit Corporation Posts ...
Blogs. Economics & Finance. Science & Education. Culture & Arts. State & Community ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (Pink Sheets: HCPC) announced today ...
en.redtram.com/go/71295074/top100 - 61k - Cached
HCPC.PK: Insider Transactions for HERITAGE CAP CREDIT - Yahoo! Finance
Get the latest insider transactions for HERITAGE CAP CREDIT (HCPC.PK) ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC.PK) On Feb 22: 0.0001 0.00 (0.00%) MORE ON HCPC.PK ...
finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=HCPC.PK - 19k - Cached
capital: Definition, Synonyms and Much More from Answers.com
... corporation's capital included $1 million of bonds, $2 million in ... profitability, or poor credit ratings may wish to rely on equity capital instead. ...
www.answers.com/topic/capital-1 - 105k - Cached
Play VideoQualityStocks Daily Video 03/01/07 on Yahoo! Video
QualityStocks Daily Video 03/01/07 Duration:291seconds. Qualitystocks.net assists publicly traded companies by getting their story out to the investment co
video.yahoo.com/video/play?vid=1886917 - 56k - Cached
Investor's Business Daily: Breaking News
Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC) announced Tuesday that one of its ... To see the complete Movers & Shakers Blog go to: http://www.stockwire.com. ...
www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=49977383 - 110k - Cached
credit: Definition, Synonyms and Much More from Answers.com
... for credit increased in the nineteenth century, formal capital markets developed ... head of Hamilton Credit Corporation, Frank McNamara, and McNamara's ...
www.answers.com/topic/credit - 176k - Cached
PR Newswire Press Releases on Statesman.com
Reader blogs. Staff blogs. Multimedia. Video. Photos. Readers' photos. Photos of ... Heritage Capital Credit Corporation Closes $11.1 Million for BCLOC Program ...
prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/ind_display.pl?Account=FNC&... - 39k - Cached
Wallst.Net - Audio Interviews - Heritage Capital Credit Corporation
Just so everyone knows, Heritage Capital Credit Corporation is a scam. ... Comment on Heritage Capital Credit Corporation. Please log in to post a comment. ...
www.wallst.net/audio/audio.asp?ticker=HCPC - 124k - Cached

mick

02/28/08 8:49 AM

#24235 RE: stervc #24138

with excerpt potential $0.085: i'm at the link for HCPC now...page one/with click to,,,
yhoo

Investor's Business Daily: Breaking News
Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC) announced Tuesday that one of its ... To see the complete Movers & Shakers Blog go to: http://www.stockwire.com. ...
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=49977383 - 110k - Cached


http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Heritage+Capital+Credit+Corporation+%2F+blogs&ei=UTF-8&fr=yfp-t-501&xargs=0&pstart=1&b=1

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=49977383

*************************************************************
HERITAGE CAPITAL CORP (HCPC) "Up 48% on Tuesday"

For an in-depth look at HCPC:

http://www.stockwire.com/detailed/analysis.php?company=HCPC .

Talk to other HCPC shareholders by clicking the following link: http://www.stockwire.com/talkback?HCPC .

Heritage is a holding company, which through its subsidiary, Independent Capital Credit Corporation is engaged in the commercial property lending business as well as in other financial services that are in large part associated with the real estate industry.

HCPC News:

February 27th - Heritage Capital Credit Corporation Receives Allocation Up to $300 Million

Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC) announced Tuesday that one of its affiliates has secured an institutional investor to purchase up to $300 million in BCLOC Trust Notes, which will fund commercial projects. The closing on this funding is scheduled to begin on March 15, 2007.

Heritage Capital Credit Corporation has received confirmation that the investor has signed a letter of authorization with their brokerage firm that when the funds are on deposit, they can be used to purchase only BCLOC Trust Notes.

The BCLOC Trusts can purchase the commercial property assets originated by Independent Capital Credit Corporation, a subsidiary of Heritage Capital Credit Corporation.

Upon completion of the $300 million funding, the Company anticipates pre-tax earnings of $0.085 per share by the end of the third calendar quarter.

**************************************************************

mick

02/28/08 9:03 AM

#24270 RE: stervc #24138

i'm attaching this for some comparisons that have been done from a mention last night for SRSR

SRSR started @ $0.0001 as HCPC is doing for this second time.
scalpers did well.

in this article/comment: it said by the 3rd qtr. $0.085

in our evaluation from niobium is unlimited[i mean by showing a real earnings]for real in assestments when geologist do their findings.

so by this fingings last night at yhoo blog HCPC is potenially going to show real earnings.

so imho both are strong showings for some potential pps.

RE

with excerpt potential $0.085: i'm at the link for HCPC now...page one/with click to,,,
yhoo

Investor's Business Daily: Breaking News
Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC) announced Tuesday that one of its ... To see the complete Movers & Shakers Blog go to: http://www.stockwire.com. ...
http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=49977383 - 110k - Cached


http://search.yahoo.com/search?p=Heritage+Capital+Credit+Corporation+%2F+blogs&ei=UTF-8&fr=yfp-t-501&xargs=0&pstart=1&b=1

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=49977383

*************************************************************
HERITAGE CAPITAL CORP (HCPC) "Up 48% on Tuesday"

For an in-depth look at HCPC:

http://www.stockwire.com/detailed/analysis.php?company=HCPC .

Talk to other HCPC shareholders by clicking the following link: http://www.stockwire.com/talkback?HCPC .

Heritage is a holding company, which through its subsidiary, Independent Capital Credit Corporation is engaged in the commercial property lending business as well as in other financial services that are in large part associated with the real estate industry.

HCPC News:

February 27th - Heritage Capital Credit Corporation Receives Allocation Up to $300 Million

Heritage Capital Credit Corporation (HCPC) announced Tuesday that one of its affiliates has secured an institutional investor to purchase up to $300 million in BCLOC Trust Notes, which will fund commercial projects. The closing on this funding is scheduled to begin on March 15, 2007.

Heritage Capital Credit Corporation has received confirmation that the investor has signed a letter of authorization with their brokerage firm that when the funds are on deposit, they can be used to purchase only BCLOC Trust Notes.

The BCLOC Trusts can purchase the commercial property assets originated by Independent Capital Credit Corporation, a subsidiary of Heritage Capital Credit Corporation.

Upon completion of the $300 million funding, the Company anticipates pre-tax earnings of $0.085 per share by the end of the third calendar quarter.

**************************************************************

rheddle

02/28/08 9:20 AM

#24308 RE: stervc #24138

Great post.e

Bam Bam17

02/28/08 10:50 AM

#24769 RE: stervc #24138

Posted by: stervc
In reply to: None Date:2/28/2008 5:03:21 AM
Post #of 24736

HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 2008…

Before you read any further within this post, please understand, the #1 reason why people buy a stock is because of its POTENTIAL. If you buy HCPC or any stock because of what I had or will post, know that you do so at your own risk as I only try to show the “potential” of a stock given certain parameters and variables created by the company’s product, business, or service that’s the topic of discussion at such time. Below, we will talk about both; actual and potential valuation.

HCPC has closed loans in the amount of $11.1 million as PR-ed below on 26 Feb 08:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)

We can now derive an “actual” valuation for HCPC. We can now expect the share price to reflect such share appreciation as depicted below:

Now with the closing of this $11.1 million, HCPC can jumpstart its program with a good chance to become self-sufficient and en route to the closing of the $861,000,000 applicants requests that are currently in the pipeline for HCPC as indicated below from the HCPC Financials filed on 18 Jan 08 on pinksheets.com below:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “Filings”)

** The HCPC Management has a pipeline of applicants’ requests for funding $861,000,000 as of the end of 2007.

From the PR released on 9 Oct 07:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)
** HCPC expects to receive a 5% origination fee for each loan funded (as Income).
** HCPC plans to use 35% of its Income to buy back stock to retire back to the Treasury.

Share Structure as of 15 Feb 08
http://www.heritagecapitalcreditcorp.com/id15.html
10,000,000,000 Shares = Authorized Shares (AS)
5,852,374,517 Shares = Outstanding Shares (OS)
4,096,423,102 Shares = Float

The above information is key to help us derive first the “actual” valuation for where HCPC should be fundamentally trading and then the “potential” valuation as to where HCPC could fundamentally be potentially trading given the closing/funding of all projects as a best case scenario.

HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (actually generated) = $11,100,000
Income = 5% of $11,100,000 = $555,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $555,000 = $194,250

This means that HCPC will have a total of $194,250 of funds available to buyback shares from the $550,000.00 earned as Income.

Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$555,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.00009 = EPS

.00009 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.0011 = Current HCPC Valuation

This means that from the loans that HCPC has already closed, we should be fundamentally sitting at no lower than .0011 per share while we continue our upward movement as we await for them to close more loans to further enhance our HCPC “actual” fundamental valuation. Given the “potential” valuation as you will see, we should be sitting much higher as ”POTENTIAL” is the #1 reason why people buy a stock.

So, while we obtain and wait at .0011 per share (or higher), the potential that HCPC intends on capturing for a total loan amount of $861,000,000 as filed in their last financials released on 11 Jan 08, is depicted below.

HCPC “Potential” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (potentially generated) = $861,000,000
Income = 5% of $861,000,000.00 = $43,050,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $43,050,000.00 = $15,067,500

This means that HCPC will ”potentially” have a total of $15,067,500 of funds available to buyback shares from the $43,050,000 earned as Income.

Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$43,050,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.0074 = EPS

.0074 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.089 = Current HCPC “Potential” Valuation

This means that if HCPC continues executing their business objectives as they have greatly shown that such seems to be the case with the closing of two loans already for $11.1 million, then there is a solid reason to believe that HCPC will reach this “potential” that exists from the combined $861,000,000 worth of applicants in the pipeline for closing.

The key reason as to why the HCPC valuation gets better is because of the 35% of Income that could be used to buy back shares to reduce the OS and the Float by retiring those shares back to the Treasury. The lower the OS goes, the higher the valuation increases.

The thoughts above could be considered very conservative in nature by some while on the contrary to others. One of the individuals within the forum had actually gone to the HCPC Shareholder’s Meeting a few months back. He mentioned that the company’s Underwriter believed that HCPC should be trading in the $42.00 to $45.00 per share price range. See the post below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25261604

That was very powerful with it coming from the company’s Underwriter at the company’s Shareholder Meeting. Heck, even if he will only be a fraction of a percent correct, that should land HCPC to be somewhere in the pennies. I’m definitely not saying that HCPC is the next MSFT as what others apparently has insinuated, but I am saying that it is still significantly undervalued at these levels in my opinion.

Again, this post is not to be considered the gospel as to where HCPC will definitely be heading, but instead, only a framework to use to understand the potential that could exist from HCPC if they continue executing their business objectives.

v/r
Sterling

hotdog1012

02/28/08 11:12 AM

#24893 RE: stervc #24138

Stervc, fantastic walk through on the fundamental EPS/PPS.

One thing you did not do, and I suspect you didn't do this because it would spin everyone's heads right off their shoulders....you didn't factor in the buyback. You mentioned it, but you didn't put that into your calculations of potential.

If you wouldn't mind playing out this scenario. Let's speculate that HCPC

a. uses only 20% of the 35% buyback committment
b. apply that to the currently closed business only.
c. assume a buyback price at .0005 to be even more conservative in how many shares they buy back

What does that do to the share structure?
What does that make the EPS and PPS now?

Anything can happen here in pinks good or bad (usually bad). But HCPC has been deliverying on their promises which sets them apart from 95% of the rest of the pinks.

If they do a sharebuyback of 200 Million or more shares, this will have a profound pyschological impact on investors.

I fully believe Carol and sr. mgmt desperately want the share count to go down and they don't want to do it in a way that devalues the stock (e.g., a reverse split). They want to do it in a way that adds value to the stock, for the company, for the investment community, for the confidence of their own clients (present and future) and for themselves.

Stervc, I think if you put in a very, very conservative estimate of a shareback scenario into your numbers, that would be encouraging for many folks here. I believe the potential is signigicant and that I have a unique opportunity to get in with allot of upside potential. I know others share the same view.

At the same time, I would be remiss to not mention that everything I have put in I am willing to loose. I don't play more than I'm willing to leave on the table (when playing any stock) and I encourage others to really push themselves on prudence.

GLTY and all here.

playstay77

02/28/08 11:43 AM

#24991 RE: stervc #24138

Thanks for the breakdown, I would love to those PPS in the near future!

no19one88

03/08/08 9:16 AM

#32559 RE: stervc #24138

Posted by: stervc
In reply to: None Date:2/28/2008 5:03:21 AM
Post #of 32558

HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 2008…

Before you read any further within this post, please understand, the #1 reason why people buy a stock is because of its POTENTIAL. If you buy HCPC or any stock because of what I had or will post, know that you do so at your own risk as I only try to show the “potential” of a stock given certain parameters and variables created by the company’s product, business, or service that’s the topic of discussion at such time. Below, we will talk about both; actual and potential valuation.

HCPC has closed loans in the amount of $11.1 million as PR-ed below on 26 Feb 08:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)

We can now derive an “actual” valuation for HCPC. We can now expect the share price to reflect such share appreciation as depicted below:

Now with the closing of this $11.1 million, HCPC can jumpstart its program with a good chance to become self-sufficient and en route to the closing of the $861,000,000 applicants requests that are currently in the pipeline for HCPC as indicated below from the HCPC Financials filed on 18 Jan 08 on pinksheets.com below:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “Filings”)

** The HCPC Management has a pipeline of applicants’ requests for funding $861,000,000 as of the end of 2007.

From the PR released on 9 Oct 07:
http://www.pinksheets.com/pink/quote/quote.jsp?symbol=hcpc
(Click where it says “News”)
** HCPC expects to receive a 5% origination fee for each loan funded (as Income).
** HCPC plans to use 35% of its Income to buy back stock to retire back to the Treasury.

Share Structure as of 15 Feb 08
http://www.heritagecapitalcreditcorp.com/id15.html
10,000,000,000 Shares = Authorized Shares (AS)
5,852,374,517 Shares = Outstanding Shares (OS)
4,096,423,102 Shares = Float


The above information is key to help us derive first the “actual” valuation for where HCPC should be fundamentally trading and then the “potential” valuation as to where HCPC could fundamentally be potentially trading given the closing/funding of all projects as a best case scenario.

HCPC “Actual” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (actually generated) = $11,100,000
Income = 5% of $11,100,000 = $555,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $555,000 = $194,250


This means that HCPC will have a total of $194,250 of funds available to buyback shares from the $550,000.00 earned as Income.

Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$555,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.00009 = EPS

.00009 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.0011 = Current HCPC Valuation

This means that from the loans that HCPC has already closed, we should be fundamentally sitting at no lower than .0011 per share while we continue our upward movement as we await for them to close more loans to further enhance our HCPC “actual” fundamental valuation. Given the “potential” valuation as you will see, we should be sitting much higher as ”POTENTIAL” is the #1 reason why people buy a stock.

So, while we obtain and wait at .0011 per share (or higher), the potential that HCPC intends on capturing for a total loan amount of $861,000,000 as filed in their last financials released on 11 Jan 08, is depicted below.

HCPC “Potential” Valuation as of 28 Feb 08
Revenues (potentially generated) = $861,000,000
Income = 5% of $861,000,000.00 = $43,050,000
Buyback Funds = 35% of $43,050,000.00 = $15,067,500

This means that HCPC will ”potentially” have a total of $15,067,500 of funds available to buyback shares from the $43,050,000 earned as Income.

Income ÷ Outstanding Shares (OS) = Earnings Per Share (EPS)
$43,050,000 ÷ 5,852,374,517 = EPS
0.0074 = EPS

.0074 EPS x 12 Conservative PE Ratio = Current HCPC Valuation
0.089 = Current HCPC “Potential” Valuation


This means that if HCPC continues executing their business objectives as they have greatly shown that such seems to be the case with the closing of two loans already for $11.1 million, then there is a solid reason to believe that HCPC will reach this “potential” that exists from the combined $861,000,000 worth of applicants in the pipeline for closing.

The key reason as to why the HCPC valuation gets better is because of the 35% of Income that could be used to buy back shares to reduce the OS and the Float by retiring those shares back to the Treasury. The lower the OS goes, the higher the valuation increases.

The thoughts above could be considered very conservative in nature by some while on the contrary to others. One of the individuals within the forum had actually gone to the HCPC Shareholder’s Meeting a few months back. He mentioned that the company’s Underwriter believed that HCPC should be trading in the $42.00 to $45.00 per share price range. See the post below:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=25261604

That was very powerful with it coming from the company’s Underwriter at the company’s Shareholder Meeting. Heck, even if he will only be a fraction of a percent correct, that should land HCPC to be somewhere in the pennies. I’m definitely not saying that HCPC is the next MSFT as what others apparently has insinuated, but I am saying that it is still significantly undervalued at these levels in my opinion.

Again, this post is not to be considered the gospel as to where HCPC will definitely be heading, but instead, only a framework to use to understand the potential that could exist from HCPC if they continue executing their business objectives.

v/r
Sterling


flnd hrchen

03/14/08 10:11 PM

#36720 RE: stervc #24138

Stervs
Thank you very much for your great effort. Reading this post I know now what kind of monster we have. However, I have some notes on your DD I hope it will be discussed.
first of all, I love to ask, is the EPS based on O/S or it should be based on the overall share number.
My second question, the 35% of earnings will be used to buyback stocks. I believe that would be based on annual or even quarters. Am I wrong? Or it will be like every transaction they do they will use 35% to buyback?
The most important thing I really want to focus on is the earnings. If the company has $ 550,000 income, that doesnt mean it has a profit of $550,000. Do you have any idea about the annual costs to run this company? Workers salaries and stuff like that? I hope (as an example) that the CEO's salary is not $250,000. Do they have debts they have to pay?
My point is, we maybe have to base the calculations on more realistic basis.
I have no doubts that the company will have a huge and bright future. But I dont think the agreements they have so far are enough to think we should be 10 times higher
What do you think?