ATPG is going to be low p/e with big growth. That should lead to a nice runup in 2008-9. It is bigger in terms of production than either PBG or POE and it will likely have a lower p/e ratio than either PBG or POE in 2008.
My estimate doesn't include discoveries but since they are offshore, new discoveries are typically not produced right away. It takes a long time to bring an offshore discovery well online. They have to build a platform or tie it into something nearby. That's why ATPG is such a unique stock. They have already hit their discovery wells and have planned out their growth for the next three years. They will have to drill, complete and hookup development wells but they have over a 90% success rate on these type of wells.
Low oil would not have a big impact on their earnings because they have a big set of hedges that virtually guarantees their revenue stream. They have a lot of debt so have hedged to ensure the revenue stream is going to consistently be there for debt repayment and future capex.
The current low price is somewhat of a gift given that they are close to announcing Q4 results, which should be well over a buck and validate their new revenue source from the Gomez platform. It will also be mostly new oil revs so the impact should be big.
Good luck. I think you are buying at a good entry point.
Bobwins
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