re Netflix
Blockbuster and Netflix are, as I see it, a better value as measured at price-per-title rented. The question is whether Apple's advantages -- High def, immediate gratification, and whatever else prove to be advantages -- turn out to mean something in the marketplace. If you are running a Trekathon you don't want to have to wait for return mail.
A threshold question is, why would you be in a position that the rental is just a click away? If you didn't set out to rent movies, why would you have Apple's player? I think that's the problem Apple confronts with its current scheme. Apple needs to give its unit features that will cause people to want to own it without the movie rental potential. Watching home movies is a plus, I'll admit -- and with current movie resolutions, DVD burning won't help with that. This may eventually prove to be Apple's real route in: with home movies heading to HD, and no HD media, what else will people do to watch them on their own TVs?
At any rate, I share what seems to be a not-too-uncommon unawareness of what the market is like for the product, and so on. However, as with music, movies will be judged not on initial sales but eventual sales. If Apple ends up with advantages on format, convenience, and content, then Apple could do pretty well -- especially in geographies where Blockbuster and Netflix don't compete. In some countries, mail is expensive ....
Take care,
--Tex.
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