Replies to post #30804 on Wave Systems Corp. (fka WAVXQ)

[cmf]

You don't think they'll hit $300K????

Well, I appreciate your honest reply. That means another trip to the well this year and another round of dilution then. Guess that explains the lack-o-IDF news. You'd think if this thang was fixin to bust loose, there would have been IDF news.

Take care.

[Wildman262]

rachel, you are right. We already know that q4 won't have much, because revs. for the q4 Intel boards won't show up until q1. If the reporting tightens up, they might also be able to include Jan and Feb shipments of the Intel TPM boards in the Q1 numbers.

[go-kitesurf]

rachelelise,

Agree. I believe the revenues will appear to grow starting Q1, as you state. Intel didn't start shipping product until late November. With Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, I doubt Wave will see more than a couple hundred thousand, if that. I do expect to see revenues higher than last quarter for Q4, but the "hockey stick" is just now beginning.

In terms of getting money for something, even in a beta situation, Wave "should" be getting revenues. The customers are still benefitting, albeit not as much as without the headaches of development continuing...

[SPIN]

no revs expected from ETS via IBM?

ETS was available for the 4M IBM PCs which had the ATML TPM installed throughout all of Q4.

standard Doma rhetoric suggests that nobody would ever buy a TPM machine right now which didn't provide an immediate funtionality increase. there are 4M machines already sold which contain TPMs (v. TCPA 1.1), which were available as a discrete sub-market from the date of the now infamous august IBM PR.

assuming the wavoid theorem to be correct, why wouldn't there be measurable revs for sales of the $39.99 ETS to the installed base of 4M TPM machines when they had four months to sell?

if there is no significant increase in Q4 revs, one might conclude that Wave wasn't able to sell many (any?) of their ETS wares to that market. if that is true, one might also infer that adoption rates for all things Wave might not graph to a hockey stick pattern (even if TPMs do ramp overall at such a rate).

the fact that you write "...residual stuff like in prior quarters" indicates IMO you have no expectations for any meaningful revs from the IBM installed base. that you wrote, "they are or are very close to the point where something should be sold for money" also suggests such expectations (or lack thereof).

you also wrote:

"And if there were any good reasons why not (relating to market receptivity) this TPM jaugernaut is rapidly eliminating that excuse."

IMO "excuse" is appropriately selected. If Wave doesn't have any sales boost after a full quarter of selling opportunity for ETS (@ $40/"seat" where the "big" rev opportunities are s'posed to reside, right?) to the IBM base, that would help to explain why wavx isn't higher (as well as the obvious specter of the SEC & class actions).

speaking of, that was quite a relief rally Rach... full round trip in all of 24 hours (in the middle of IDF no less).

hardly a "juggernaut."