My full attention this morning is focused on the area of low pressure, seen on satellite imagery, located about 350 to 400 miles east of the northeast coast of Florida. This area of disturbed weather has become better organized overnight and shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated. There is the potential for this system to be classified as a tropical or subtropical depression at some point today. In addition, there is also the potential for this system to make landfall somewhere between the Carolinas to New England this weekend.
As I already mentioned, shower and thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated over the last 12 to 18 hours with this system. Wind shear analysis early this morning indicated 15 to 30 knots of wind shear over this system and this is barely favorable for tropical development. Indications are that environmental conditions will remain marginally favorable for development through Thursday, but are expected to become more favorable on Friday into the weekend. Now, let's take a look at all of the model guidance:
The GFS model forecasts this storm to move over the outer banks of North Carolina on Saturday night before turning almost due east south of New England on Sunday night into Monday.
The NAM model (which only goes out to 84 hours or Saturday morning) forecasts that this storm will be located near 32 North, 73.5 West on Saturday morning moving northwest.
The Canadian model forecasts this storm to track either over or very close to northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina on Saturday night into Sunday morning and then tracks it across eastern North Carolina on Sunday evening. After that, the Canadian model forecasts a northeast path southeast of New England on Monday night.
The NOGAPS model forecasts a landfall on the Georgia coast just south of Savannah on Sunday morning. The UKMET model forecasts this storm to curve just south of the outer banks of North Carolina on Monday.
The European model forecasts a landfall on the coast of South Carolina on Saturday evening and then the ECMWF model pulls it north-northeastward just inland from the coast from North Carolina on Monday to Virginia on Tuesday and merges it with an approaching frontal system by Tuesday night.
The Track models continue to be all over the place with potential tracks with the BAMM, BAMD models forecasting a path that takes it offshore of North Carolina. The GFDL model forecasts a track that slowly moves it northeast about 150 miles south of Morehead City, NC in 5 days (Monday morning) while the HWRF model forecasts a track that brings it inland just east of Wilmington, NC on Saturday afternoon.
Here are my thoughts: It seems that the majority of the global models forecast either an impact or a close brush with coastal South and North Carolina this weekend. The consensus model forecasts a track that takes it over the outer banks of North Carolina on Sunday. My thinking is that the highest probability of either a landfall or a very close brush with this storm (Which its name will be Gabrielle once it is named) is from northeastern South Carolina to eastern North Carolina, including Myrtle Beach, Wilmington, Morehead City and Cape Hatteras. With that said, this is definitely not set in stone and areas further south to about Jacksonville, FL and further north to southern New England also have a threat from this storm. As for a potential time of landfall in northeastern South Carolina to eastern North Carolina, it looks like anytime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning.
As for potential intensity, I think slow development is likely over the next 24 to 36 hours as environmental conditions are marginally favorable for development. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable on Friday and Saturday and this could lead to intensification of this storm. The European model has been hinting at intensification right up to landfall, which could mean that this storm could undergo a period of significant intensification just before landfall and it is possible that this system could be at least a Category 2 hurricane at landfall.
I know I am sticking my neck out on this forecast and I could be wrong with it (especially with intensity), but this storm poses a very real threat to the Carolinas this weekend. All interests in the Carolinas and areas further south to Jacksonville, FL and further north to southern New England should keep close tabs on this storm. I will be monitoring this storm very, very closely and I will keep you all updated on the latest information.
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