Fitch Upgraded Bolivia - NEW YORK-(Business Wire)- July 27, 2007 -
Fitch Ratings today revised the Outlook on Bolivia's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Stable from Negative, and affirmed the following ratings:
—Long-term foreign currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'B-'; Outlook to Stable;
—Long-term local currency IDR at 'B-'; Outlook to Stable;
—Short-term IDR at 'B';
—Country Ceiling at 'B-'.
Public debt reductions under the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI), maintenance of macroeconomic stability and positive economic prospects, underpinned by a favorable external environment, supported the revision of Bolivia's Outlook to Stable. 'Though political, social and policy challenges will continue to weigh on Bolivia's ratings, the MDRI and sustained growth have reversed the prior trend of deteriorating external solvency and liquidity ratios,' said Theresa Paiz Fredel, Senior Director of Fitch's Latin American Sovereign team.
As a result of the MDRI, debt sustainability is no longer a pressing issue. MDRI covered 100% of debt incurred by Bolivia before January 2005 to the IMF (US$230 million) and the World Bank (US$ 1.5 billion). Bolivia's public debt/GDP ratio declined to 32% by year-end 2006 from a peak of 60% at year-end 2004. Additional debt relief from the Inter-American Development Bank totaling US$1.2 billion will reduce the public debt/GDP ratio to below 20% of GDP this year. As other sovereigns in the 'B' rating category have also benefited from the MDRI, Bolivia's debt levels remain in line with similarly rated credits.
Despite divisive domestic issues including the direction of macroeconomic policy and the Constituent Assembly, Bolivia's overall macroeconomic performance has strengthened within the context of a favorable external environment. Inflation declined in 2006, though negative supply shocks and rapid monetary expansion are putting upward pressure on prices so far in 2007. The performance of the extractive sectors will continue to drive moderate GDP growth of around 4.5%, as well as a strong balance of payments over Fitch's forecast period. The latter has led to record accumulation of international reserves, which are projected to increase by over US$800 million this year, reaching more than US$4 billion by year-end. Additionally, changes in the hydrocarbons law and expenditure restraint have underpinned a significant fiscal adjustment as the general government balance reverted to a surplus of 3.5% of GDP in 2006 after peaking at an 8.9% of GDP deficit in 2002.
Bolivia's short-term economic outlook remains favorable, but the country faces many challenges and risks over the medium-to-long term, particularly with respect to attracting foreign direct investment, which is needed to develop its abundant natural resources and to deliver on gas contracts it has already signed with Argentina and Brazil. Better infrastructure, stronger institutions, and improvements in the rule of law are also critical to supporting growth and raising employment and living standards.
Now that the renegotiation of the hydrocarbons contracts has been successfully completed, more clarity on macroeconomic policy choice, particularly pertaining to other key sectors of the economy such as mining, electricity and telecommunications, would be - positive for creditworthiness.
Continued macroeconomic stability and/or an easing of social tensions which results in improved governability would also benefit Bolivia's credit fundamentals. By contrast, increased social and/or political instability that detracts from Bolivia's economic performance or affects debt service willingness could bring renewed pressure to Bolivia's ratings.
Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use of such ratings are available on the agency's public site,
Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site.
Btw. Note.... it will always in all countries be - 666 bolshevikz making - rare communistic demands - all since stalin time....
The comfort with which most Americans have lived their lives is likely to end within this decade--due to global events that are now manifesting themselves.
History shows that there are definite cycles that our economy experiences. Certain classes of investments are held in high esteem, while others are neglected for long periods of time. Then the cycle reverses. This is simply due to the sin nature of man. The old adage of markets being driven by greed and fear is true. The Bible tells us to neither be greedy (1 Tim 6:10) nor to be fearful (Matt 10:22-33). However when the world economic system is controlled by men who are not moored to a Biblical worldview, then greed and fear will drive our economy. And the root of this greed and fear is money.
What is Money?
Today our monetary system is made up of fiat money - money by “decree”, or simply - money printed “out of thin air”. Fiat money has been tried for thousands of years but it has one thing in common. Every fiat money system in the history of the world has failed. This is a very important fact! Ours will be no different! The question is, when will it happen, and what form will the destruction take.
Contrast fiat money – created by man - with God’s money, which is silver and gold. I believe there is a reason why a limited amount of these “precious metals” have been placed in the earth by our Creator. It was to give us an honest form of money, which would help man keep in check our struggle with greed and debt. God gave our Founding Fathers wisdom to see that God’s money would help protect “the people” from mismanagement of the country’s monetary system by the government.
When the Federal Reserve was created in 1913, our country began the long journey from using God’s money – established by the Bible first and our constitution second – to our current fiat monetary system. This private entity, controlled by the world’s powerful bankers, has fallen prey to the greed of man and has maneuvered our economy into a corner that will possibly ignite a hyperinflationary monetary environment within the next few years. The result could be the destruction of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency. How did the Fed paint us into this corner?
The Trap is Set
After the turn of the century, the Fed had a major problem - how to keep the economy from entering a deep recession. Following the double shock of the NASDAQ market collapse and 9/11, the Fed needed to stave off a major recession and deflation similar to the 1930’s. To accomplish this, they lowered interest rates to multi-decade lows and cranked up the electronic printing press. This deadly combination saved the economy for a time, however it led to a bubble in the housing market. Our cash flow society took the opportunity provided by low interest rates to increase the size of their mortgage and all other forms of debt. Furthermore, lenders took the opportunity to lower credit standards to absurd levels, adding to our debt woes. This flies in the face of what God tells us in Proverbs 22:7 – “The rich rules over the poor, and the borrower is servant to the lender.”
Today, rising interest rates, falling home prices, and a tightening of credit standards have caused buyers for homes disappear. The imbalances created by this situation have led to what is known as a “liquidity trap” – a perfect storm of circumstances that has caused credit markets to seize up. The credit crisis may have begun in the mortgage market, however it has spread into other markets. The toxic waste known as OTC derivatives, which were used to package suspect subprime mortgages with other debt, was sold into markets throughout the world, rated AAA, or “investment grade”. Now these debt instruments are being exposed as junk, and the reaping of the fields of greed and deceit which were sown has just begun.
Sophie’s Choice
In this 1982 movie based on a novel by William Styron, a young mother on her way to a Nazi concentration camp had to make a horrible choice - which one of her two children would she send to the gas chamber and which one would she save? This is where the Fed finds itself today. They are on a tightrope between two horrible choices. 1) Raise interest rates to defend the dollar and choke off price inflation. This would cause huge problems with the mountain of debt our country has piled on and would crush housing or 2) lower rates to save the credit bubble, knowing price inflation will increase as the dollar falls and all those cheap imported goods and commodities rise rapidly in price.
The first choice involves playing with a deflationary depression similar to that of the 1930’s as the money supply is held in check and debt defaults skyrocket forcing mass foreclosures, bankruptcies, closings of banks, and widespread loss of capital as the stock markets crash. The latter choice would force the government to inflate and most likely hyper inflate the currency - essentially destroying it as they pay off existing debt with dollars worth far less in terms of purchasing power. Based on comments by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and current monetary policy, it appears as though the choice will be made to sacrifice the currency. This choice will likely result in hyperinflation and the destruction of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Biblical Worldview
The thought of this can be quite unnerving. However if you examine these events through a Biblical worldview, you can see how they fit into the progression of events toward the end times predicted in the Bible. Regardless of your view of eschatology, there are a series of events that must happen prior to Jesus’ return. The world framework which must be in place includes:
1) There will be a single currency. 2) There will be a single government. 3) There will be a move toward a single religion.
Even with the level of globalization that we have seen over the last 20 years, these are still very dramatic changes to the current world order. There needs to be a catalyzing event to move toward this world structure. With a Biblical worldview in mind, I would propose the following as a possible scenario. I am not called to speak this as a prophetic word from God. As the US economy goes through economic and social turmoil, we lose global influence. Politically we are dealing with our own problems and we leave the world stage as a global policeman. Our US dollar is no longer the world’s reserve currency after being destroyed via hyperinflation. It is replaced by a regional currency similar to the Euro, which includes Canada, the US and Central America. The new “Amero” replaces the US dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Mexican Peso. During this time, the same thing happens to Asian currencies – they consolidate. This takes us one giant step closer to a single world currency. The US hegemony is no longer an issue, and there would instead be 3 or 4 regional world currencies.
As currencies consolidate, so will governments. Witness how the sovereignty of European countries has been destroyed as their governments are slowly consolidated in the name of economic progress. With this step complete, the stage is thus set for a one world currency and one world government. As painful and unpleasant as it might be to go through, it sounds like prophetic progress to me!
Protect Yourself
Tor those in Jesus Christ, this is good news! I believe that God wants us to protect ourselves and our families through this time of change. Proverbs 22:3 says: “A prudent man foresees danger and takes refuge, but the simple pass on and are punished.” The word “foresees” is an active verb. The Bible does not ask us to passively sit and wait to discover danger as it creeps up on us. We must know the landscape around us, all the while keeping long term events in the proper perspective of a Biblical world view. We have history to learn from. The question is will we do it?
We live in very exciting and historic times! We can live in fear or in anticipation of the events that will bring us closer to the return of our Lord Jesus, whether that is tomorrow or 1000 years from now. Dangers exist everywhere – in the culture and the economy. Our focus as Christians has largely been on cultural dangers. It is necessary to now get the word out that there are dangers in the economy as well. Yet these changes show that God is on the move, possibly taking large steps toward what the Bible describes our world as like when Jesus returns! By foreseeing these changes and taking refuge, we can protect our families and loved ones, maintaining the joy of Christ in our lives. God’s blessing to you!
Doug Tjaden
Doug Tjaden is a father of 5 and is a pastor/elder of “The Mountain Church” in Castle Rock, Colorado. He is Director of Administration of Equipping the Family Ministries. Doug also operates a web site (www.traditionsofmen.org) where his heart is to expose the ills of our current monetary system to God’s people. He can be emailed at pa30twin@yahoo.com. ----
Ps. Gold & Silver - The Only Real Money Standard =
not paper, not electronic credits, not chips and not polo-ticz fiatz or 666counterfeitz vs....
The old real dollar is the name of the official currency in several countries, dependencies and other regions, including Australia, Canada, the East Caribbean, Liberia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, Singapore and the United States -
It is represented by the symbol $, placed before the dollar amount (in French Canada, after) -
The dollar was also in use in Scotland - during the 17th century, and there is a claim that - it was invented at the University of St Andrews -
The name is related to the historic currencies Tolar, in Bohemia, Thaler, in Germany and Daler, in Sweden.
The name thaler (from thal, valley) originally came from the guldengroschen (great gulden, being of silver but equal in value to a gold gulden) coins minted - from the silver from a rich mine at St. Joachimstal (St. Joachim's Valley) in Bohemia - (now in the Czech Republic).
The name Spanish dollar was used for a Spanish silver coin, the peso, an 8 real coin, which was widely circulated - during the 18th century in the Spanish colonies - in the New World -
The use of the Spanish dollar and the Maria Theresa thaler - as legal tender for the early United States - is the reason for the name of that nation's currency -
The word dollar was in use in the English language - for the thaler for about 200 years prior to - the American Revolution -
Spanish dollars, or pieces of eight as they were called, were in circulation in the 13 colonies that became the United States and legal tender in Virginia -
The bottom lines - Bucky - to fall down the cliff corrupt disgraced? = why the super rich want safety in PM's - Got FMNJ PM's safety?
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