Hi Tom:
I still watch it but I have not traded it for the same reason you have not bought it: it never dipped enough to make the risk-reward worth it to me. I almost pulled the trigger once, but decided not to (and lost a small gain) -- lack of comfort at these levels is keeping me out of it on the long side. It is a good company, but in my view the stock is well ahead of the fundamentals. Even though I think it is over priced, this market is crazy long right now and bucking that kind of trend is a quick way to lose money as well.
If I had to pick one side as the most rational bet for the next 2-8 weeks, it would be short, not long. Of course, the market is not always rational and I am not certain enough about that bet to wager anything significant on it.
Typing this out, it makes me think that a small investment in some puts @$30 with a couple months to go might make sense. I will have to take a look at that more closely.
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