Replies to post #18942 on SPOOZ Inc (SPZI)

[wing_walker]

THSeeker, I believe those early estimated projections

were based on a much smaller intitial capital investment. We are still waiting the first full report.

[Gbathat]

updated, proposed (verify it yourself before using it) model for swarm revenue estimate

Thanks Seeker

here is a revised model concept (PLEASE VERIFY BEFORE USING YOURSELF, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL EXPERT OR ANYTHING EVEN CLOSE, JUST BORED ON A SATURDAY MORNING).

let I = initial investment value
let x = fraction profit per month
let z = fraction withdrawn per month (i had to get a z in there!)
let Y = account value for a given month n
let R = amount withdrawn for a given month n
let n = number of months

The model is similar to before, but needs to account for the amount withdrawn

For the first month, n=1

Y1 = I*(1+x)(1-z) and R1 = z*Y1/(1-z)

For the second month, n=2

Y2 = I*[(1+x)(1-z)]*(1+x)(1-z)= I*[(1+x)(1-z)]^n

R2 = z*Y2/(1-z)

plugging this into excel for a four year period, assuming that (these are WAG's mind you)

I=$100,000
x= 0.15 (very conservative compared to values estimated on this board based on previous announcement.)
z= 0.02 (a total WAG that would probably vary over time based on company needs)
and monthly compounding

we find:

n----------Y--------------R----------Revenues per year
12-------$419,843---------$8,568--------$670,557
24-----$1,762,682--------$35,973------$2,815,286
36-----$7,400,499-------$151,031-----$11,819,785
48----$31,070,481-------$634,091-----$49,624,547

which is pretty good agreement with the value you mentioned for 2010. Important notes: R is a per month value (amount withdrawn at the end of each month); Revenues per year equals the rate of increase in account value per year based only on that previous month's performance (revenue from that month multiplied by 12) and includes both the increase in account value along with the amount withdrawn that month.

REMEMBER, THIS WAS BASED ON GUESSES ON MY PART WITH REGARD TO INITIAL INVESTMENT, WITHDRAWAL RATE, AND COMPOUNDING PERIOD. I THINK THE RATE OF RETURN IS CONSERVATIVE, BUT THAT IS MY OPINION.

hopefully this will give people a good tool (after you verify it yourself!) for analyzing future PR's regarding swarm

DO THE CALCS YOURSELF. I AM NOT A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ANALYST OR ANYTHING CLOSE. THIS IS NOT TO BE TAKEN AS INVESTMENT ADVICE.

if anyone finds any errors in my logic or math, please post to the board... thanks!