Replies to post #7166 on Black Dragon Resource Companies Inc (BDGR)

[localoil]

Good question.

I'll walk you through the thought process from my perspective although I have NO DATA on this well. I offer this just to illustrate what may be reasonably inferred as we "connect the dots". Disclaimer: Two people can look at the same set of "dots" and come to two very different conclusions.

Assumptions and inferences follow...

I am assuming that "flowed" literally means that.

If that is the case, and given the volume of the oil produced
I'm going to guess that:

1) This is a deep well, ie, over 5,000 feet
2) It was earlier produced and SHUT IN
3) I don't think tubing has just been run, but I'm not sure.
4) I think its a carbonate formation that has relatively low permeability and that gas pressure has built up in the near wellbore region as a result of being shut it.
5) I expect that the oil is relatively high gravity, 35 API or higher, probably paraffinic in nature.

That the well flowed 111 bbls on the first day infers pretty decent bottom hole pressure builds up over time at that the original drive was a gas drive.

Gas coming out of solution and expanding in the tubing lightens the hydrostatic load and lifts the oil - just like uncorking a bottle of Pepsi...

So, when the flowing ceases and the remaining gas has risen out of the tubing, shooting the standing fluid level will tell you what the bottom hole pressure is AT THAT MOMENT, keeping in mind that it will still be somewhat high.

Putting the well on pump will produce a Second Flush, as the bottom hole pressure is reduced throught the lowering of the standing fluid height.

What happens ultimately one can only guess. However, fourteen days worth of data, seven days after "opening valve" and seven days after putting on pump will give you a neat curve that can be reliably extrapolated from.

If it is a massive carbonate, then keep in mind that frac'ing technology has come a long way since this well was drilled, if I had to guess I'd say in the first half of the eighties. But that is only a guess.

If you have the chance check the well completion history out and see what situation is.