any forecasts i've heard this year have been for a very active season, and it's actually the sea surface temps, the SSTs, that have more bearing, imo. so far they are quite warm and getting hotter.
Good observation protein and you are somewhat correct, except for the fact that SST are actually WARMER now than that of the same time during the Major year of 2005.
Although it was cold for a couple weeks, i believe we experienced one of the warmest winters on record which kept the SST from falling to low during the winter which has now lead to the HOTTER SST across much of the atlantic, caribbean and Gulf of mexico.
here is a link from about 2 weeks ago that compares the SST from this year to the same date in 2005 which spawned Wilma, Rita and Katrina.
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