Replies to post #19645 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[HailMary]

should be watched closely the next few trading sessions.

I agree here. From a TA standpoint, AMD is at a critical point on the chart. If it pulls back much more from here ($15.50 in my book), the bottom will likely fall out and return to $14 or even $12 if there is enough downward momentum (high volume selloff), and it will probably be a long time before we would see 52 week highs again. I'll be watching like a hawk the next few days, because I will exit at $15 or so in case this happens. If AMD stock, however, can weather the current downtrend (stay at or above $16) for a few trading sessions, it will be a strong indicator (3 successful tests of a $16.00-$16.50 lower bound).

TA isn't the whole picture though, and obviously you can't predict anything from this since you have to see what it does first. TA will show you momentum shifts, and you can usually time sells and buys from it. I would feel more comfortable holding for a couple more months if it stays above $16.

There is a lot of risk in the chart short term. It can go either way at this point. I've already made a bet that it will rebound and move higher, but I won't be surprised if I have to utilize my exit strategy instead.

HailMary

[sgolds]

Mysef, that Nov. 20 point does define a support point (and we are right there, right now actually). Take a look at a slightly larger view, say 3 or 6 month graph. You can see that this is a double top formation. If this support holds and the price goes up from here then look at the two peaks as resistance. If it breaks that resistance then expect the stock to climb at least a few more dollars.

Actually, there are some problems with the bullish outcome. Double tops are usually followed by corrections of the type discussed earlier, meaning the stock is more likely to trade down to one of the percentile support points to complete the correction (as I posted earlier).

Sometimes, after a double peak, the stock will rally back up to a third peak about even with the other two, i.e., a triple peak. When this happens the market is telling you that you have one last chance to cash out before the correction because the most likely direction is down. Note that the second most likely direction is sideways - it can wander between 16.50 and low 18s until something causes the stock to break one way or the other. I tend not to favor this prediction because of the strong runup the stock has had without a correction since the mid 10s.

Notice that I've discussed three possible outcomes - up, down and sideways - and stated that the order of likelyhood is down, sideways and (least likely) up without a correction. There are other TA methods that should be checked since a conclusion should only be drawn as a consensus of several indicators. I really haven't checked volume - particularly up and down day volume. Other indicators to check are 50 day and 200 day moving averages, and Bollinger bands.

(Actually, I really don't understand Bollinger bands well enough. It is easy to see them on a graph with default values, but what is harder to understand is when the default values are invalid and the chart should be redrawn with different values.)

Also keep in mind that TA is useful over many trades, it is suppose to help more often than hurt and give you a better return over time. Shouldn't overly rely on it.

Tommorrow I'll post the section on the psychology of support and resistance - it makes fascinating reading!

Note to jhalada (hit my posting limit for the day): The hanging ending on that post was a word pun. I noticed that I was completing the post right at the time the site was scheduled to be down for maintenance, thus the pun.