Thursday, December 04, 2003 8:32:45 PM
I agree here. From a TA standpoint, AMD is at a critical point on the chart. If it pulls back much more from here ($15.50 in my book), the bottom will likely fall out and return to $14 or even $12 if there is enough downward momentum (high volume selloff), and it will probably be a long time before we would see 52 week highs again. I'll be watching like a hawk the next few days, because I will exit at $15 or so in case this happens. If AMD stock, however, can weather the current downtrend (stay at or above $16) for a few trading sessions, it will be a strong indicator (3 successful tests of a $16.00-$16.50 lower bound).
TA isn't the whole picture though, and obviously you can't predict anything from this since you have to see what it does first. TA will show you momentum shifts, and you can usually time sells and buys from it. I would feel more comfortable holding for a couple more months if it stays above $16.
There is a lot of risk in the chart short term. It can go either way at this point. I've already made a bet that it will rebound and move higher, but I won't be surprised if I have to utilize my exit strategy instead.
HailMary
HailMary
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