Replies to post #19600 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[dougSF30]

chr, probably just another "fake new delay"-style misinterpretation. Or disappointment that they didn't actually *raise* guidance. Plus the SOXX isn't too swell today.

Apparently there is some confusion (similar to the "delay" problem with Hector) about the comment Rivet made that "we're still losing money, but getting damn close". From what others have said, he was talking about Q3, but since he didn't speak precisely enough, (especially if you only had audio), you could misinterpret that to be a contradiction of Hector's previous guidance that "we're not going to lose money" (in Q4).

Not a great job, on Rivet's part.

Doug

[sgolds]

chr p, you probably know my position that this stock has been overdue for a correction. When that happens then the stock sells off on any excuse until the weak hands are washed out. Was it this morning's presentation? I don't think so. The stock started the correction yesterday.

I think the motivator was Sun's reassurance to customers that they are still investing in SPARC technology. Sun is denying that the game plan is for Opteron to replace SPARC. The confusion over this morning's comments may be a secondary factor.

Ultimately, though, the trading game is not to be the last one holding when a correction starts. Each trader knows that the correction is in progress, and no one wants to buck the market at least until the first generally accepted resistance point is reached. All it needed was a trigger, and Sun obliged with their statements.

(Of course, Sun has no other choice. Osborne effect - they cannot be seen as abandoning the SPARC architecture suddenly, even if they do plan to migrate to AMD. If they do want to migrate SPARC to AMD64 then it will be done in a politically correct manner. Most likely by presenting the fig leaf of IP contributions to K9, which can then be presented as the successor generation to SPARC. It takes time.)

Related note: I missed this last spring, just noticed on a web search that Adam Osborne died in March. Here is a quick obit for him:

http://www.geek.com/news/geeknews/2003Mar/bch20030326019290.htm

Computer pioneer Adam Osborne has died. Mr. Osborne, 64, wrote the documentation for the world's first microprocessor, Intel's 4004. He had a vanishingly brief stint as a computer mogul in the early 1980s with his Osborne line of computers. In April 1981, 5 months before IBM's IBM PC was unveiled, the Osborne-1 computer was introduced. For US$1,800 users got a 25-pound machine equipped with a speedy 4MHz Z80 CPU, 64 KB RAM, and a 5-inch monochrome screen. The Osborne-1, which was the first commercially available, reasonably priced (IBM introduced a $20,000 portable machine in 1975) portable personal computer ever, was a huge success. By September, Osborne was selling $1 million worth of machines per month. Unfortunately, Mr. Osborne made a critical mistake in 1982 when he announced the next-generation machine, called the Executive. The company still had a warehouse full of Osborne computers, and consumers decided to forego the Osborne for the Executive. By the time that the Executive came out, it had competition from another portable computer made by a new company called Compaq. Osborne quickly ran out of money, and the company declared bankruptcy in 1983. Mr. Osborne had a brain disorder that caused him to suffer numerous small strokes, and this apparently was the cause of his death.