laranger, re: "Is Howard romancing SAM, with a deal they can't refuse, to upset their arch-enemy, Mighty Nokia?"
That is certainly possible. SAM is the wildcard in this game. There is more at stake than just 2G rates. Keep in mind that the 2G rate is probably of more significance to NOK while a CDMA2000 rate will impact SAM more.
What if IDCC is trading off CDMA2000 rates as part of a package 2G/3G deal with SAM while going through the motions with NOK. If IDCC could get SAM to agree to the same 2G rate as ERICY then NOK wouldn't stand a chance with the arbitrators. They would have to fall in line and pay the same rate. At the same time, a package 2G/3G deal with SAM would surely set the industry-wide standard rate for CDMA2000 and WCDMA. NEC has an MFL clause in their CDMA2000/3G agreement with IDCC, so they would love to see SAM negotiate a better rate for them. SONY/ERICY would probably accept whatever rate SAM signed up for as well. Once those players are signed it will be much easier to get MOT or Siemens to sign as well for the same package deal. Then NOK will face tremendous pressure to do the same.
If I were IDCC, I would be very negotiable with SAM right now.
Note that since SONY/ERICY doesn't have an MFL clause in its 2G licensing agreement with IDCC its obligations will not change. This was a good move on IDCC's part, and something that SONY/ERICY would not give up lightly. That is, I believe, one reason they got such a good deal on the 2G rates.
Here's a hypothetical... Let's say IDCC gives SAM a break on 2G rates versus what SONY/ERICY pays. SONY/ERICY still pays the current rate, and IDCC can still claim to the arbitrators that NOK is bound by that rate, too. SAM could conceivably come away with a competitive advantage over NOK and SONY/ERICY on 2G rates going forward if they agree to a package deal now on CDMA2000 and 3G. This would force NOK to decide if it wants to play hardball through arbitration, or try to negotiate the same deal SAM got for all standards.
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