Re: Could someone more perceptive than I am; tell me why Intel’s stock price just does not move?
Investors are currently valuing Intel as a company with very little growth potential. This is somewhat spurred by the analysts, who have been insisting that the slippery slope of microprocessor commoditization, along with scrappy and efficient competitors, will have more of a downward pull on Intel's ASPs than Intel can reverse by expanding the size of the market.
Their theories were vindicated last year, when Intel's revenues fell sharply, year over year, in spite of solid growth from other semiconductor companies. Of course, those who pay close attention to the details (many on this forum, for example), understand the competitive dynamic between Intel and AMD that led to Intel's disastrous 2006 performance (relative to the industry). And many here believe that Intel is poised to deliver much greater returns, now and in the future.
Of course, Wall Street isn't too convinced. In fact, when they see AMD flailing, they pretty much assume that Intel will announce lowered guidance as well. That remains to be seen, and IMO, the opposite may be true. I think Intel's stock performance is intimately tied to actual results, rather than the strength of their product line. Investors want Intel to show them the money. It's that simple.
If you feel like throwing in the towel, that's understandable. It's not a 100% sure thing that INTC stock will ever recover. However, I think relative to a ton of other stocks I can think of, INTC is the best poised to show the best returns over the next year. I think if people wait it out, they will see their investments appreciate. Of course, it never hurts to diversify, so if your INTC holdings are a large portion of your portfolio, feel free to sell off some of it and invest accordingly. However, I think you will end up feeling sorry if you sell all of it.
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