Amid all the volatility of recent weeks one market has proved relatively serene: gold has trundled higher to fresh records, popping above $2,500 an ounce for the first time.
Silver tends to act like a pilot fish, tracking the bigger bullion, but the grey metal has notably failed to follow gold’s record-setting, trading currently around $29.40 an ounce.
The world of precious metals does attract its share of evangelists and hype. But one assessment seems to be making the rounds, and over the last five sessions, silver has outperformed gold.
The analysis comes from retired investment professional Kevin Bambrough, the former president of Canadian asset manager Sprott who tweets and publishes YouTube commentary on precious metals.
In a recent posting on X, Bambrough argued that Samsung’s new solid-state battery technology, which incorporates a silver-carbon (AG-C) composite layer, should deliver a big boost in demand for silver.
The key drivers that will ramp up demand for EVs are range, charge time, battery life and safety, says Bambrough, and he forecasts that the Samsung technology will deliver a battery with a 600-mile range, a 20-year lifespan and a nine-minute charge.
A very, very big caveat: official numbers are unavailable. Bambrough estimates that as much as five grams of silver may be used per cell in Samsung’s new batteries.
“A typical EV battery pack containing around 200 cells for a 100 kWh capacity could require about 1 kg of silver per vehicle,” he says.
Global car production is about 80 million vehicles a year, according to Bambrough, so if say 20% of these were EVs and were to adopt the Samsung solid-state battery the annual demand for silver would be around 16,000 metric tons.
“This would represent a significant portion of the current global silver production, which is approximately 25,000 metric tons annually, highlighting the substantial impact on the silver market,” says Bambrough.
By some estimates, demand from the solar industry already has helped push the silver market into deficit as consumption, which also includes jewelry and investment, outstrips supply.
Bambrough is prepared to accept that his figures are mere projections. “Perhaps 5 grams might be high. Perhaps 20% will prove low for solid state battery penetration into the auto industry. It could be as much as 50% or greater looking 10-15 years out,” he says.
And in a later post Bambrough reiterated that his amount of silver-per-battery cell was guesswork, and that it could be as low as a half gram per cell.
Still, what the Samsung technology does suggest is that the silver market will get still tighter, allowing, he says, “the price of silver to take a run at its all time inflation adjusted high [of] $200/oz,” which would likely be seen in the coming 10-15 years.
“All one needs to do is look back at the silver chart of the 1970’s to see how explosive the precious metal can move skyward when a true shortage develops and speculators decide to hoard,” he says.
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