Replies to post #251 on Chart Patterns and TA

[gfp927z]

>> Gold <<

With gold, you usually don't want it to be doing too well, since that means regular investments like stocks / bonds are still doing OK. I view gold as basically 'disaster insurance', an alternative to fiat paper money. If gold zooms to 3000, it likely means 'regular' investments are in trouble.

The US 'debt bomb' is ticking. 35 trillion now, but 40 tril in a few years, then 50 tril, yikes. Fwiw, I'm figuring 50 tril is the point where the world loses faith in the dollar system. So 2029 or thereabouts.




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[gfp927z]

>> Russell <<

Yes, it and the DJIA have lagged for some time, but looks like the Russell may be catching up fast. The Russell 2000 (IWM) was up 3.5% today, so a pretty spectacular move, which puts it right at the late March high. Once through that, then the all time highs from 2021 aren't too far off.

Fwiw, I've been mainly using the S+P 500 for the stock allocation, but recently added some small and mid cap individual stocks, and also the small / mid cap ETFs (VO, VB). The smaller stocks tend to be more sensitive to high % rates, so they should benefit from the upcoming Fed % cuts. With luck the bull market breadth should expand.

Lots of landmines out there though, so I'm keeping a fairly low stock allocation. Only 10% in the S+P 500 and another 3% in individual stocks and a few sector ETFs. So a fairly puny allocation, but am trying to avoid the Tagamet :o)

Btw, good luck with that gold related wager with your buddies. If your price prediction was on the high side, you could turn out to be the winner. Tough to predict, and the central banks also have a gold suppression mechanism, but the chart setup sure looks bullish. A month ago it looked like a pullback to lower levels might be in the offing, but now it's 'off to the races' again.



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