Replies to post #704423 on NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

The biggest challenge in the lawsuit isn't the admission that they spoof/ are spoofing/ spoofed(?). Its providing evidence that damages have been endured and to what extent.

That is just for the MTD.

Past that, the 2 large hurdles would be establishing:
1) The supposed spoofing orders were placed with intent to manipulate the market
2) The MMs either placed the orders for themselves or were somehow complicit

The first issue is complicated by the fact that the MMs are placing orders for retail. If I place a limit sell and 30 seconds later you buy that is not evidence of a spoof even if both routed through Citadel. If the orders were on behalf of the same beneficial owner (be if the MM, hedge or retail) then that is fairly solid evidence. At present no such evidence exists and it is far from clear it will.

For the second, if the MM themselves are the traders then agreed the case looks easy. If somebody else though it gets murky. In the example of you and me, if we both used E*Trade then all the MM sees is 2 orders from E*Trade and nothing unusual. In the case of one of the "Island Boys" (my nickname for the low rent finacers who flip stock sold by fledging companies at a discount) then they would also not see anything unusual as the buy side would be private. And if the MM sees nothing unusual they cannot be guilty by any rational argument.

On the issue of damages, at present the Court is not allowing any assertion of long term damage so NWBO has to show their stock sales were temporally proximate to there sales. NWBO has listed several within an hour, but the MMs are arguing that is still too remote. I suspect the Court will allow the 1 hour and the case goes on, but if not it could be difficult as the examples are all over a couple minutes.

On a related issue, if the Court sticks to the 1 hour window, then one can calculate the damages as listed in the complaint, They are a only few hundred thousand dollars. Not exactly huge.