Lykiri, thanks for the thoughtful post. I agree that it’s likely that Northwest Bio’s marketing application was high quality, and did not require additional information to be requested from the MHRA, as stated in the 1st quarter report. I also agree that it is highly likely that the application has received priority review.
I personally don’t believe that we can deduce the exact timing of the final decision by the timing of the ASM, or anything that Les said, since the company will only have a general idea of where the MHRA is in the process (and because Les has not exactly been reliable about timing). It appears to me that they have passed the first assessment phase and are now somewhere in the second phase, but it is difficult to know how long this phase will take with the backlog of inspections, and understaffed inspectors at the MHRA. I say this because Les said that no negative disclosures were required in the quarterly report, and he was talking about scheduling site visits, which generally occur after the initial scientific assessment. The company may also be able to deduce where the MHRA is in the process, if their questions change from questions about the application itself, to questions about defining the label, (whether enough evidence was presented for the label to be broad - for all gliomas, or simply for nGBM and rGBM) and post-approval risk management plans, etc.
It seems somewhat irrelevant (to me) to be trying to determine exactly when the assessment started, and counting days in the 150-day assessment timeline when the MHRA hasn’t been close to completing a single assessment in this timeline that was established four years ago. Having said that - I personally don’t know what the second validation date of March 7th means, but I believe that it was determined on or by that date, that the application was complete, and of high quality, so no further information will be officially requested by the MHRA, and the application is entitled and “confirmed” to receive priority review.
I think that, for the purposes of the MHRA’s own timeline, (since they track this) the official assessment (and timeclock) started at the first MHRA validation date of January 24th. I believe that they intend to complete the assessment as soon as they can, but with backlogs, it may take more than 150 days. However, I’ve always hoped the MHRA could pull a rabbit out of its hat for Northwest Bio.