X's bold claim, KCC's latest , 10Q Nuggets and Truth about where things stand:
While I've become increasingly skeptical as the company continues to consistently act like a company that is hiding things that aren't good, I try to remain objective: If there are truly new developments that are exciting I want to know. Antwerp, dinners, winks and smiles mean nothing to me. BUT - the 10Qs and 10Ks - filings and direct public statements DO mean something. So, let's take a look.
X's BOLD CLAIM ABOUT TIER1 FUNDING:
X excitedly resurrected an old narrative that the Tier1s were secretly so supportive of Lightwave that they were funding Lightwave's work with Foundries beginning back in 2021. I thought ECOC 2023 killed that theory for good when the feedback was that Tier1s FINALLY had started to at least pay attention to people like Lightwave for the first time.
But, good ol X tried to revive it yesterday when he said this about the 10Q:
This post got 24 thumbs up. Did anyone here bother to do DD on it? Well I did.
First here is the actual quote from this 10Q:
Notice how each point is separated by a semicolon? The 'arrangements' wasn't through Tier1 funding of R&D. Rather it was talking about how they can work together to sell products! R&D was separate and distinct from the mention of an 'arrangement'. did X not read the rest of the sentence? It almost seems like he intentionally is trying to revive the old narrative, no?
To kill this this idea totally, I ask - did X not realize this same language has been in past 10Qs? - in fact I found it all the way back in 2016 - YEARS BEFORE ANY FOUNDRY WORK!:
Let this put to rest once again the now totally debunked idea that ANY TIER1s or hyperscalers ever funded their work with foundries. Pure fabrication in the minds of dreamers.
Yet another reason I view X's postings the way I do...SO, will THIS post get 25 thumbs up for telling the truth?
KCC's latest, from the 'quiet' forum, with some answers from the 10Q:
KCC's near term expectations:
Seems like expectations always go from very high a few months out to very low a few weeks out...just saying.
KCC's questions:
I GOT NEWS FOR EVERYONE: THE COMPANY WON'T ANSWER ANYTHING THAT THEY HAVEN'T ALREADY ANSWERED OR PUT IN A FILING. When are people going to realize this? The company very carefully manages what they say and they only tell us what they want us to know. They don't want anyone to know how far away things really are. If they were close, they would want you to know because they need to enable LPC to continue to sell shares. This sounds cynical but this is the reality that has kept their doors open for the last 12+ years.
KCC's 'guess':
Guessing. What if that guess is wrong? And even if it is right - KCC points to many things that can go wrong. Here's an answer straight from the 10Q, KCC:
Until it is in a PDK we can assume consistency, yields, scalability - SOMETHING IS STILL NOT SATISFACTORY TO EVEN THE FOUNDRIES THEMSELVES. But KCC wants to know what that is? Again, the company WILL NOT TELL US because they don't want us to know. They don't want to risk losing their funding.
KCC's worry:
KCC's hope
The PIC's that we hear are 'under construction'? Clues to the true status of construction can be found in the 10Q THE 10Q REFERENCES TO PROTOTYPE PRODUCTS ARE IMO A HUGE CLUE AS TO WHERE THEY STAND: Look up the word "prototype". It is used 15 times. Every time it is used as though a prototype has been created already it is under the Polymer Stack section for waveguide modulators created in-house. This is the 'stand alone' modulator which is not the large market shareholders are looking at for ubiquity.
In EVERY OTHER PLACE where the 10Q talks about a prototype, it appears to be vaporware - anticipated only, when you read very carefully re their Polymer Plus and Polymer Slot and their work with foundries. It looks to me like they have NOT created a single prototype yet for those technologies...SO KCC's hope seems more like a dream still...and SOMETHING(S) - likely multiple difficult things, are still standing in the way of a damn simple prototype despite the company saying prototype-this, prototype-that for years now.
NUGGETS IN THE 10Q:
Ok, this sounds pretty damn good.But I won't apologize for recognizing all the things the company doesn't tell us, and all the times it has been clear that they are much further away than they want us to know. I have ZERO reason to believe that is not still the case. If there is a good reason, let me know.
Good to see they put into a filing what they said at Antwerp. Even so, VIEWING and REVIEWED says nothing much of value, really.
NOTICE HOW COMPLICATED THE PIC PLATFORM IS, and who open-ended everything is:
How much have they said about lasers, multiplexors, demultiplexers, detectors, and fiber couplers? Are those all working together properly?
Within sight?
FOLKS, it really is just more of the same obfuscation. NOTHING NEW will come out of this ASM because if you have learned even ONE THING after all your time invested here surely it is the same thing I've learned - that the company will only tell us what they want us to know and all that really matters is what they have already publicly said...and all of that just leads to the reality that this is probably much further away from commercialization than they want us to know, and THAT IS WHY they don't answer questions that help us figure out how close they really are: Their survival depends on continued obfuscation year after year.